Player Discussion Adam Larsson (Hall talk will result in a thread ban)

Discussion in 'Edmonton Oilers' started by DasDrai, Jan 29, 2018.

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  1. Little Fury

    Little Fury Registered User

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    So let me get this straight: you hate it when people use stats like shot attempts for/against without context (despite using stats like +/-without context) but you like David Staples' utterly garbage and completely subjective "mistakes" stat? *EYEROLL*
     
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  2. MessierII

    MessierII Registered User

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    It corresponds with my eye test. Klefbom is and always has been bad in the D zone. Turns the puck over and blows coverage regularly.
     
  3. Little Fury

    Little Fury Registered User

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    "It confirms my preexisting biases" is a lousy criteria for evaluating a stat.

    Funny too how you don't account for quality of competition (Klef is seeing tougher opponents than the likes of Russell and Gryba who fare better by this bogus metric) or zone starts or any other contextual considerations. But the bottom line is "mistakes" is an entirely subjective and incredibly loosely defined, unlike neutral and actually quantifiable stats like shot attempts.
     
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  4. MessierII

    MessierII Registered User

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    Shot quality > shot quantity

    Shot attempts have literally 0 impact on the outcome of the game. I’ll take subjective stat quantifying scoring chances for and against over 100% accurate shot attempt stats 10 times out 10.
     
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  5. Little Fury

    Little Fury Registered User

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    Then use a stat like XGF/XGA instead of this staples nonsense.

    No that's GF. But shot attempts are a useful proxy for puck possession.

    Yeah it's pretty clear you're less interested in using stats as a tool to evaluate players and more interested in cherry picking anything that confirms your pre-existing beliefs.
     
  6. MessierII

    MessierII Registered User

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    Staples got the idea from Dave Tippett. He used a similar stat to track and evaluate his own players.
    Shot attempts are not puck possession. If you want to measure puck possession measure puck possession. Time of possession is tracked in other sports. Pretty simple.
    No different than literally every analytics blogger in existence and 99.99% of aceboogies posts.

    Sorry for your hurting your feelings by the way.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2018
  7. Drivesaitl

    Drivesaitl Civilized Worm

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    A key is theres a difference between the hockey analytical level of Staples vs Tippet. With Staples its garbage in/garbage out. His hockey observations are as fraught with bias as anybody.

    Its one thing for someone to borrow a concept or metric. But to think they have done that concept justice through their own level of analysis and observation is another thing.

    The judging of shot quality would be very subject to inter viewer reliability because unlike goals, or shots, the judging of quality shots is not an actual data amount. Its a subjective judged tally. Of course if a viewer likes a particular player, or think they are dangerous around the net the "shot quality" bell will be ringing like crazy. Doesn't mean the tabulation is quality..

    If you are familiar with statistics in order for observed data to be considered reliable inter observer reliability should be substantiated. Different viewers should be able to utilize the same metric to obtain consistently reliable data.

    What has often occurred instead in these metrics (Staples and that of analytics) is that interobserver reliability has been said to be satisfied through the use of several different viewers involved in tabulating. This does not establish reliability unless all those viewers tabulations demonstrate very similar scoring.

    This is one of the difficulties I have with a lot of hockey stats. Those that are producing them have limited familiarity with statistical methodology or such things as reliability. How many would even know how statistical reliability is obtained;

    Social Research Methods - Knowledge Base - Types of Reliability
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  8. Little Fury

    Little Fury Registered User

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    So? It doesn't change the fact that it's a fundamentally subjective stat (also I expect that Tippet knows what to look for mor ethan staples does).

    Until such a time as the NHL starts tracking that and making it public or someone takes the time to do so by watching all the games, shot attempts are a useful proxy for possession. Shot quality would be even harder to measure as there are a million variables that influence it.q

    Whataboutism.

    Is this english?
     
  9. PerformanceMcOil

    PerformanceMcOil Registered User

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    Yeah, but it isn't fair to single out Staples in that regards. There are problems with how basically all the advanced stats in hockey are generated, and there are almost never measures of variability done for any of them. So while the numbers generated themselves are technically objective, the conclusions made on them are so open to observer bias, they might as well not be.

    The analyses done basically boil down to 'more is better', and at what level 'kicking ass' turns into 'getting ass kicked' tends to revolve around the narrative someone is trying to push on a given player.

    Staple's stats, and the scoring chance stats that others generate are very useful in principle, but yeah, unless they are done with rigor, they're just different chapters in the advanced stats fiction novel. An interesting read, but not scientific in the slightest.
     
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  10. PerformanceMcOil

    PerformanceMcOil Registered User

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    The problem is, you can't just say that you are unable to measure what you'd like to measure, so you'll just measure something else and use it as a 'proxy', and because it is a number, it is good. You have to show it is actually a useful proxy, and then in your analyses bake in how good it is.

    For instance, let's say at the level of the individual, Corsi shows a 60% correlation with possession, which would actually be incredibly high, and I very much doubt it is anywhere near that. Let's also assume that two player's have CF/CA percentages of 58% vs 48%, and that these players are machines and their CF/CA are exactly that, game after game and season after season, so we don't have to worry about their individual variance (which I hope you can understand is a ridiculous assumption). Then let's really go nuts, and assume they play on the same teams with and against the same players for the same amount of time (which is impossible). Even then, their true 'puck possession' values would range from about 35 to 81 for the first player, and 28 to 68 for the second player*. So, player one is more likely to be a better puck possession player for sure, but there is a substantial chance that player two is actually equal or superior. Yet, I am pretty sure no one who uses these metrics would have anything nice to say about player two. And this was after making a boat-load of assumptions that don't even come close to reflecting reality.

    So yeah, Corsi etc. may be proxies for possession, and they may be the best stats we have, and the numbers are numbers so they may be objective, but it doesn't mean the conclusions drawn have any statistical foundation to stand on.

    *NB: These numbers are generated purely from the R^2 of 60%, and aren't a true measure of what the ranges would be (you would need to have a significant number of data points measuring possession vs. CF/CA for the league). However, it is a reasonable estimate of magnitude, and there would certainly be significant overlap between what the true possession numbers of the two players could be.

    Edit: Also, a pretty strong argument could be made that if all the assumptions I made were true, the r^2 value between Corsi and possession would be much higher, and so the predicted values would be much tighter.
     
    Last edited: Jun 2, 2018
  11. McFuhryous

    McFuhryous Registered User

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    I'm pretty excited to see what kind of changes Yawney brings to Larsson's game. I think we will see him turn Larsson into a complete d-man. It won't happen over night, but by 25 games in I bet we see the positive changes start to take affect.
     
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  12. ohheyhemsky

    ohheyhemsky Regehr DooDoo

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    Legit, what if we see a 30 point season? Will everyone just shush?

    Probs not.
     
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  13. Dazed and Confused

    Dazed and Confused Ludicrous speed, GO!

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    I'd be curious to see Larsson get some PP time. Let him grow his offensive game a bit, and for the most part he fits the needs of the top unit: RH shot, good passer, and not someone that telegraphs their moves. He's always looked good when given the opportunity with the national team, so try it here.

    But this would mean you'd need to free up Larsson from his heavy defensive usage.

    If you do that I'd like the idea of going after Pysyk or Petrovic from Florida. Bogosian Buffalo would be another name (if they'd be willing to retain salary), who would also work.


    Nurse-Larsson
    Sekera-Klefbom
    Russell-Pysyk/Bogosian/Petrovic
    Benning

    Maybe break up Nurse-Larsson if you want to spread the physicality around, but I actually like the look of that.
     
  14. LaGu

    LaGu Registered User

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    Larsson related
    OEL: "The entire last season was all about getting back up on my feet again, trying to find the fun in playing hockey. It was nice to play, but many times I just wanted to drop everything and go home."

    This was related to this season, 17/18, and he lost his mother in the spring of 2017. Shortly after he won the IIHF WHC with team Sweden.

    Many things in common with how things went down with Larsson. I obviously hope that Larsson manages his loss better during this upcoming season, but it is a bit concerning. Especially with Sekera out. I hope Nurse and Klefbom are up to the task thid year, becsuse if Larsson struggles then this season can go bad very quickly.
     
  15. Aerchon

    Aerchon Registered User

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    Ironically enough I watched/followed that tourney and it was universally agreed Larsson dominated in that tourney.

    Hopefully that is a sign he is moving past his loss.

    Despite that situation, and slightly underperforming during the last season, I have few concerns about HIS play.

    Only had 13 points but was still +10 on a bad team.

    Klefbom was hot garbage. Sekera bad. Russell ok but not good. Benning regressed a bit from the year before but statistically speaking had a solid if unspectacular year.
     
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  16. McHockeyfan91

    McHockeyfan91 Registered User

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    I too have zero concern about his play, he was still solid this year on a bad team, and had an unreal WHC.
     
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  17. dustrock

    dustrock Too Legit To Quit

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    Don't want to dwell on analytics too much but where I find it interesting is when you get a statistical result that is way off from what the eye test tells me.

    Most of the time the stats show me the guys I see live or on tv as good really are good.

    But when the stats say the opposite, that's where it becomes interesting to me and that's where we have to figure out why the numbers say one thing and the eye says another.

    Like Dellow says, good teams tend to keep being good throughout the season, so don't read too much into it.
     
  18. Del Preston

    Del Preston Registered User

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    Advanced stats ignore a lot of stuff that defensive defensemen do. That's why you get people like Scott Cullen from TSN calling Larsson a "passenger" and a certain NYR fan on the main board saying Larsson has zero impact on the game.
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018
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  19. guymez

    guymez The Seldom Seen Kid

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    Couldn't agree more.
    Advanced stats have their usefulness for sure but they also have limitations.

    I would take a so called 'passenger' like Larsson on my team any day of the week.
     
  20. Aerchon

    Aerchon Registered User

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    All stats have thier place when used in conjunction with the eye test and in proper context.

    All stats are extremely limited without.

    Any Stat that paints Larsson as a "passenger" is completely and utterly useless in this context and needs to be carefully examined how and where it can be used effectively.

    Larsson makes his defensive partners much better and his team very obviously. Nurse and Klefbom career years playing with him. Klefbom without him this year weak. Nurse at the worlds terrible without him. OEL terrible without him this last regular season but the best pairing at the worlds with him. Larsson being lauded as the best defender in that tournament while taking home gold.
     
  21. 780il

    780il Registered User

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    We need a RHD at the top of the pp right? Why not try Larsson there. As far as I can remember he didn't even get a shot on the pp. He was pretty good on it in junior. We dont need a dman that runs the pp, Mcdavid will do that. Just one that can pass and shoot from the top without having to have everything go through him.


    Feel free to completely go off on me if I'm wrong.
     
  22. Kolja

    Kolja 1-5-6-14

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    Agree!
     
  23. Aerchon

    Aerchon Registered User

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    Larsson was considered a offensive defenseman in the SEL (jr).

    However we are approaching too little too late to truly expect significant growth in his offensive game. Especially with Bear and Bouchard waiting in the wings. This will be his last year imo where that makes any sense to even try that.

    I had him as a Vlassic level defender at his peak but that seems unlikely now. I think he will get better just not as good offensively as I had previously thought.

    On the flip side his defensive game is better than anything anyone could have imagined. His defense easily makes up for not having elite offense. I easily consider him a #2/3 on most teams and since coming here has arguably been our #1.
     
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  24. 780il

    780il Registered User

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    I agree, but we should give it a shot and if he holds his own then it means that Bear and Bouch can develop properly and take their time. If it doesn't work out then we should go back to Klefbom as the ppqb with this setup.

    Pulju-Lucic-Drai
    Mcdavid-Klefbom

    Gives Mcdavid 3 one time options (Klef/Pulju/Drai). Lucic to screen and tip in shots. Mcdavid isn't a shooting threat on the pp and in this setup he wouldn't have to be.
     
  25. shoop

    shoop Registered User

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    Hopefully Larsson has a rebound year which helps Klefa have a rebound year.

    Klefa/Larsson
    Sekera (replacement)/Russell
    Nurse/Benning
    Gravel unless Bouchard forces his way on the team.
     

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