Rumor: Bob McKenzie on Canucks interest in Ryan O'Reilly.

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by F A N, Jun 6, 2018.

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  1. vancityluongo

    vancityluongo Twin Benning Sponsor

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    lol.

    This isn't some "they turned down the 9th overall for Ryan Miller" pie-in-the-sky theory to make Benning look bad out of nothing.

    We know with reasonable certainty the following:

    - McPhee was willing to trade up for the 5th overall pick
    - His top target was Cody Glass (i.e. that's who they wanted, not Pettersson)
    - The Canucks value Pettersson over Glass
    - McPhee was allegedly willing to offer a second round pick.
    - The trade did not happen.

    We have the intent and the effect. The process that led to the result is essentially irrelevant. Maybe Benning was so ****ing shrewd that he had McPhee in tears at the price he was asking. Just carved him up and used his superior (off-camera) linguistic abilities to get McPhee to agree in principle to trading 6th + a 2nd + Vegas' 2018 and 2019 first round pick in exchange for 5th overall. Or maybe McPhee bugged Aquilini Towers and got the insight to call off the deal last second. Doesn't really matter...because the trade didn't happen. Whether he over-negotiated, showed his cards straight up or something in between...he didn't close the deal. Given what we reasonably know, he did a poor job executing.

    This video just lends more credence to the idea that the process was poor. But it's very much a minor detail. We should only care about the result. If Benning can straight up tell Bowman the player he wants this year and Bowman is willing to give up a 2nd round pick to take a different player at 7 instead of 8...fantastic. Nobody would prefer a Harvey Specter style takedown only to lead to a failed outcome over that.
     
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  2. Icebreakers

    Icebreakers Registered User

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    I don't think it did anything I'm pretty sure teams don't have spies on every team listening in on their every move. Benning could have pointed at any player and something about them. Like hey look theres Noah Dobson he looks bigger than he was at the combine. What are you supposed to infer from that?
     
  3. I in the Eye

    I in the Eye Drop a ball it falls

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    I agree... The discussion kind of took off on it's own. The original point was, it would be concerning for Benning to trade for O'Reilly, because he is a poor negotiator... and we got a glimpse of his negotiating style from this video (where the process clearly sucked, IMO, from beginning, to middle to end)... and then there have been a few posts disparaging the video, and my thought process. Which is fine... but there are ample deals where the Canucks have lost value... This video shows one instance, that should have been extremely easy to close. To me, carelessness in process cost the Canucks a 2nd rounder. I think could probably point to carelessness in process in a lot of Benning dealings... be it trades, in discussions about trades with players on other teams, with having prospects light fires during a summer fire ban, etc. This has not been proven to be a careful, methodological regime. It would be fantastic if there was video like this on every process, such as the Hamhuis non-trade, the failure to paper players for Utica, etc., etc., etc. Even edited glimpses, would be fantastic.

    I think there is more than bias going on here. If it was ever uttered by a Believer, "yes, it was careless when Benning did this"... is it so difficult to believe that it was careless when Benning did that? Yes, careful people sometimes do uncareful things... But careless people do uncareful things often.

    To me, it's crystal clear that the video shows a poor negotiator... but that video is just one example of Benning (and this regime) being careless in process. But yes, we can discuss if it was best if Benning made the first offer or not... which is a rather small point in the context of the argument... What about during value definition? Right, the video could have been incomplete... and besides, in poker, it's a better strategy to let the other player show his hand first. What about the ending? Right, McPhee might have targeted a player that was no longer there so no longer needed the pick. What about this article saying McPhee backed off because the he was told who the Canucks were going to draft? Right, might have been a vengeful Rangers... or the source might be given false information, or the source may have lied. And I'm the biased one being blinded. I think, more accurately, is that some are being blinded in their attempt to discredit posters who are attempting to discredit Benning. I admit, I'm attempting to discredit Benning. Benning is not careful in process, and I don't think he should be Canucks GM. I don't think my bias is blinding. I fully embrace my bias, and I look at things knowing that I have a bias... The ones being blinded, are the ones who are not realizing that they have a bias, IMO.

    To tie it back to O'Reilly, if the Canucks are really interested and they are talking with Buffalo, I hope Benning doesn't leave it to Buffalo to determine the value... and I hope Buffalo defers the original asking price to Benning to decide. Actually, I don't know if I hope for this or not... Usually, I would argue that when you can, having control in and directing the process to your favourable outcome is better than handing it to someone else to determine, or leaving it to chance (including the process of a negotiation)... but I do think it's within the realm of possible that Benning even initially offers more than what Buffalo would have initially asked for. We do know that Benning has it in him, already, to accept what another team determines as value without further negotiation. We do know that Benning has it in him to leave value on the table (or pay to get the player he wants. Maximizing value isn't the most important determining factor, for him. However, yes, maybe the video of Benning slamming his hand on the table and saying "dammit McPhee... we need a 2nd ,and that's it!" (or something similar) was edited out. Maybe with showing so much competence in process, there is a fear that some competence may be wasted?
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
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  4. RandV

    RandV It's a wolf v2.0

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    Since this is being talked about a lot the last few days I'd like to point out something else I noticed when watching that while likely nothing came of the specific instant is more ammunition of Benning being a smooth operator to go alongside the pointing bit.

    Watch the 50-60 second portion of Benning talking with his scouts:

    "we get Pete...our guy"

    Smooth recovery :sarcasm:
     
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  5. racerjoe

    racerjoe Registered User

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    Your example I feel is worse. Why not still play them off each other. Tell NYR let us think about it, tell Vegas, NYR want the pick, see if you can get more.
     
  6. Buck Dancer

    Buck Dancer Registered User

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    This video is amazing on so many levels, first that the Canucks media people thought it a good idea to show it is astounding. Second, it's clear that Benning has no clue who most players are after the first round. He's openly asking questions about what kind of player Gadjovich is - like he has never even heard of him before. Finally, and this is a bit of a petty one, but do you notice the look on his face when the phone rings? It's like he is confused as to what is happening, and what is supposed to do.....the guy just drips incompetence.
     
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  7. krutovsdonut

    krutovsdonut holy makarov!

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    even assume they were pointing at pettersson alone, mcphee would know there was another player other than glass the canucks were interested in.

    the whole potential trade rumour is predicated on the notion mcphee thinks glass is the canuck's guy but they are not that high on them and would take a different guy in return for just a second.

    so they knew at all times there was another plan b for the canucks not far off glass. and that would also have been obvious from the fact the canucks were also talking to buffalo at 8th.

    so, worst case, pointing at pettersson just tells them who the other guy is.
     
  8. Buck Dancer

    Buck Dancer Registered User

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    Who's Petterson? Benning is discussing someone named PETER-son, oh and someone named YONA.
     
  9. Canucks1096

    Canucks1096 Registered User

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    I am using another argument Now because I can't believe you don't see the benfits in getting ROR. I am trying to make you see it a different angle. So you don't want to give up assets to get a quality player. For sure we are not getting quality player in ufa. You just want to draft and wait for the young players to develope? Here is the problem with your ways of doing this. Boeser and Horvat 21 and 23. So if you don't makes trades to add to the puzzle. You are going to wait longer to make the playoffs. Let's say if they don't make any trades to bring quality Vets. Maybe we wait 3 to 5 years before we make the playoffs. A lot of young players since the lockout have their best season early 20s to mid 20s. Your way doing this, you are wasted Horvat and Boeser Prime years. Is that a good idea?

    I disagree with the Canucks don't have enough talent. They have a lot of talents, it's just that talent is not ready yet and we can use more high end talent. If you think the Canucks don't have high end talent. Isn't it a good idea to trade for some? Here is the young 24 and under depth chart right now

    Baer Horvat Boeser
    Dahlen Pettersson Lind
    Goldobin Gaudette Virtanen
    Liepsic/Gadj McEwen Palmu/Jasek

    Let's say you add ROR for Baer and Virtanen and a second round picks. Canucks have players replace those two. If you get ROR they may not make playoff next year. But They will make it a lot sooner than not having ROR. If they make the playoffs sooner you take advantage of young players Prime years. Sure they might have a Jets and Leafs type of season next year. But I can definitely see it soon.

    I completely get where you are coming from the young player has 10 to 15 year window. But if we can replace that player that is no big deal then. Also you are not wasting Boeser and Horvat Prime years wasting for those players to develope.

    When Pettersson transition to center maybe in a year or two. You will have Pettersson Horvat and ROR down the middle? Those three down the middle will be scary. Not many teams can match that down the middle. Once ROR we can try to replace him with someone in our system.

    One problem we had before the Sedins and the WCE Era. The Windows wasn't long enough because window opened when when WCE and Sedins were in their late 2s. Wce window only last really two years in 03 and 04. Sedins was little longer from 09 to 13. I want this future window last longer. Hawks window lasted like 10 years because Hawks window started when Kane and Toews was 20 years old.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
  10. CanaFan

    CanaFan Registered User

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    If you can get ROR for Virtanen, Baertschi, and a 2nd then I take back everything I’ve said. That’s a straight up steal and you do that any time you get the chance.

    But I don’t think Buffalo does that. A 10 goal scorer, a 35 pt winger, and a 2nd doesn’t buy you much and certainly not many 60 pt centres.

    My objection is to any trade involving the 7th or top prospects like Dahlen or Demko. None of those should ever be dealt for a 27 y/o anything until this team is on the cusp of being a cup contender.

    I’m not at all worried about Bo and Boeser. 23 and 21 is as young as it gets in the NHL. They have a 10 year window and I want them to be supported by a strong group of players their age or younger, not a guy who is 4-6 years older and who has a significantly shorter window than either of them. That would be as stupid as Ottawa trading for Matt Duchene, which is pretty widely regarded as a huge blunder by Pierre Dorion.

    Let’s not make the same mistake.
     
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  11. F A N

    F A N Registered User

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    Ya the deal didn't get done. But it seems that your perception is that every time a deal falls through it's poor execution or the process was poor. I remember back in the day, the prevailing perception was that Brian Burke didn't want to take Kadri.

    Sticking with Brian Burke, I think he was known to "try" to say something interesting when he is on the mic.

    GMs and scouts get word of who another GM might be targeting or not sold on. People assume that Benning was bluffing that he would take Glass when in reality, the leverage on McPhee would be that the Canucks can trade down, still grab the guy they want, and have another team grab Glass.
     
  12. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    Or that the canucks value the said prospect + 2nd rounder over Glass. Either way.

    Even that is besides the point. You don't want to show your hand in that situation.
     
  13. vancityluongo

    vancityluongo Twin Benning Sponsor

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    Of course not. We rarely find out what the true intent behind the deal is in the same manner we heard from McPhee, so to claim poor process in pretty much any other circumstance would be ludicrous.

    If I was the Canucks GM and I offered Tanev for Nylander and they countered with Leivo + 2nd, causing the deal to fall through, that's not poor process - it's simply that neither side has the intent to do the transaction at what the other side deems is a reasonable price. And if all that was reported is "Rumor: Tanev to Toronto" followed by Tanev not getting traded, there isn't enough publicly available information.

    Again, here we reasonably know that McPhee was willing to give up something along with #6 for #5. Benning would have to give up nothing, because he still gets the player he wants at 6. Something + Pettersson > Pettersson. It was an arbitrage opportunity. He didn't execute.

    And yes, 100%; Benning had additional leverage in that he could still reasonably get Pettersson after #6, and dangle the #5 as Cody Glass to whoever was willing to move up to take him. Once he got the intel that McPhee was after Glass, he had a crazy position of strength. Oh well.
     
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  14. F A N

    F A N Registered User

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    Again. These deals fall through all the time. You think Columbus didn't want to trade down and still draft PLD? You're operating under the assumption that McPhee thinks Benning is giving up a lot in not drafting Glass, otherwise if Benning is giving up nothing to move down and McPhee doesn't think Benning is giving up anything to move down, why would he move up? It doesn't work that way. Teams often trade up for the purposes of securing the guy they want. Not every team that trades down do so with the idea of still selecting the guy they want. Often times there's a couple of players in a group that they want and they take the risk of not having a choice. Similar thinking went into the Schneider trade. Gillis calculated that he would get a good player at 9 and it was worth it to him to make the deal not knowing who would be available at 9.

    Draft day moves are hard. You say the process was poor but how can it be better? The deal can't be made until they know how the draft would unfold. And it sounded like they had discussed the possibility of swapping picks and Benning asked if McPhee wanted to do it and he said no. Of course, if Benning knew he could draft Pettersson by moving down with some other team then he would have leverage because he could go to McPhee and tell him he has a deal in place if he doesn't take it some other team is drafting his guy. But he didn't and didn't want to take the risk.
     
  15. Katani Kalan

    Katani Kalan Registered User

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    Would you guys be interested in ROR for a package of Tanev, Baer and Sutter? Trading Tanev would most definitely hurt our defense but ROR would greatly improve our top 6. Baer is expendable in my eyes and Sutter we could replace with Gaudette.

    Reason Sabres do this is first they can put Risto and Scandella on 2nd pairing and have Tanev on the first with Dahlin. Baer gives them depth on wing and Sutter takes over 3C for them. Not to mention if ROR really is unhappy with Sabres he needs to go.
     
  16. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    I definitely would, but if Benning offered that package to Buffalo’s, the GM of Buffalo would fart in the receiver and hang up.

    In the odd case that Buffalo’s GM did accept an offer like that, I’d then consider signing Matt Duchene and Tyson Barrie when they become UFA’s.

    Again though - Buffalo’s asking price for O’Reilly will likely be something that the Canucks will not or should not be willing to give up.
     
  17. Wo Yorfat

    Wo Yorfat dumb person

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    I'd kinda hate it. I don't like the value, and I really don't like the direction. Tanev, Sutter, and Bart are all guys that should be available for picks/prospects at tdl. I don't think it's at all unreasonable to collectively value those guys as worth two 1sts and a 2nd.

    If we traded two 1sts and a 2nd for ROR, I'd take a dump at center ice.
     
  18. VanJack

    VanJack Registered User

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    I suspect Buffalo will price themselves out of the market and be forced to keep him. He'd look great in the middle for the Canucks but not at the expense of gutting their prospect pool.
     
  19. Katani Kalan

    Katani Kalan Registered User

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    Nobody is giving a first or 2nd for Bart or Sutter. Tanev yes maybe even a 1st and 2nd but more likely a 1st alone.
     
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  20. Katani Kalan

    Katani Kalan Registered User

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    A top 2 RHD on a good contract is worth close to a 1B/2C I don't think the value is that far off especially taking in consideration of ROR cap hit.
     
  21. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Hope you’re right. If that’s all it took to get O’Reilly, I would absolutely make that trade. I just think that other teams would be able to offer a stronger package. Hopefully, your vision comes to fruition.
     
  22. MS

    MS 1%er

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    The other interesting thing about this video is that you can clearly see that Dipietro and Gadjovich were Brackett picks that he's pushing for and convincing Benning on but the complete dud Gunnarsson pick was a Benning special. Brackett is pretty clearly deciding to pick his battles and says he's 'ok' with this one.
     
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  23. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Since people already hate my proposals, I don’t feel to ashamed to “think out loud” here. I wonder if it would be at all realistic for a Boeser + 7OA for Eichel deal to ever be made?

    With Mittelstadt, Reinhart, and O’Reilly, the Sabres would be set down the middle regardless. Boeser would give them a sniper.

    Vancouver would get an alpha center while Horvat would move to the #2 spot. Pettersson pretty much replaces Boeser as the team’s top winger.
     
  24. timw33

    timw33 Registered User

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    It's still absolutely astounding that Gunnarson didn't even get a measly secondary pity assist in 52 games this year. Up to 2 points in 117 games over past 3 years.

    "He's gonna play"-Benning
     
  25. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    I don’t know MS.

    I usually love your posts and genuinely do think you’re the best poster on this Canucks section of the site, but you have to admit that your negative bias towards Benning is a bit much.
     

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