NHL 2017/18 Team Rankings

By willmma · Dec 4, 2017 · Updated Apr 9, 2018
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  1. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    HERE WE GO AGAIN FOR 2018/19

    I would like to share with you team rankings based on the ELO rating system.

    This is purely mathematical based on wins and losses. Each team has a score. That score increases or decreases based on wins and losses. The amount of change is based on the score of the opponent. Eg. If a strong team beats a weak team then they don't gain a lot of points because it is expected. If a weak team beats a strong team then they gain a lot of points and the strong team loses a bunch. It balances out. Streaks can swing a team's rankings by a lot.

    For the purposes of my calculations, each team started with 2500 points. K is 100 and doesn't change.

    NOTE: I changed the scoring system so that OT/SO wins are lesser than regular wins (half a win). And a an OT/SO loss is half a loss.

    After 35 games played this season the rankings for Oct 09 2018 are:


    #TeamElo Score
    1Colorado Avalanche2600
    2Dallas Stars2600
    3Boston Bruins2597
    4Nashville Predators2596
    5Carolina Hurricanes2564
    6Montreal Canadiens2554
    7Anaheim Ducks2552
    8Calgary Flames2550
    9New Jersey Devils2550
    10Buffalo Sabres2546
    11New York Islanders2536
    12Los Angeles Kings2525
    13Tampa Bay Lightning2525
    14Chicago Blackhawks2501
    15Philadelphia Flyers2500
    16Winnipeg Jets2500
    17Toronto Maple Leafs2484
    18Ottawa Senators2482
    19Florida Panthers2475
    20Washington Capitals2475
    21Pittsburgh Penguins2471
    22Columbus Blue Jackets2468
    23San Jose Sharks2468
    24Edmonton Oilers2450
    25Vancouver Canucks2450
    26St. Louis Blues2436
    27Vegas Golden Knights2429
    28Minnesota Wild2425
    29Detroit Red Wings2416
    30Arizona Coyotes2407
    31New York Rangers2368

    DivisionAvg Score
    Central2522
    Atlantic2509
    Metropolitan2491
    Pacific2478

    ConferenceAvg Score
    Eastern2500
    Western2499



    Cheers :thumbu:
     
    Last edited: Oct 9, 2018
  2. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Unexpected GF% of 100%

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    How accurate has ELO been in the past as a predictor of future success? Not criticizing - legitimately curious.
     
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  3. ijuka

    ijuka Registered User

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    This is a very interesting perspective. Thank you for doing this, it's appreciated.
     
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  4. Frosty415

    Frosty415 Stay Frosty

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    Cool list, nice to see Vegas high up there too
     
  5. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I checked a few years ago. Found it to be 50/50 :huh: Just as good as a coin flip.
     
  6. The Macho Man

    The Macho Man Unexpected GF% of 100%

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    :laugh:

    Yeah from what I've read forward-looking predictive rankings are tough. I mean, ELO isn't supposed to be be definitive, just probabilistic, so maybe it does a decent job when you control for it, but there are so many potential confounding factors.
     
  7. DominicBoltsFan

    DominicBoltsFan TyJo might be good again

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    Interesting. I like the concept.
     
  8. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated.
     
  9. BrettHullsToe

    BrettHullsToe '99*

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    I wish the Stars were back in the Pacific - 3 of the top 4 teams being from the Central is tough.

    Speaking of which, is it too much extra work to add an average ELO per division and conference?
     
  10. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    I updated the code to show Division and Conference averages. :thumbu:
     
  11. BrettHullsToe

    BrettHullsToe '99*

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    Awesome, thanks!
     
  12. KPower

    KPower Registered User

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    Buffalo too high.
     
  13. Mortivore

    Mortivore Registered User

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    Interesting to implement ELO. Mostly know it from chess, will be fun to see how the standings progress.
     
  14. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    lol
     
  15. DancesWithWookies

    DancesWithWookies Registered User

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    Interesting stuff. Thanks for posting.
     
  16. MajorLeafsFan

    MajorLeafsFan Registered User

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    Good to know my two favorites are in the top 10
     
  17. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    This is pretty cool. Thanks for your hard work. :thumbu:
     
  18. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 6th
     
  19. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 7th
     
  20. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    updated for Dec 8th
     
  21. willmma

    willmma Registered User

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    Updated Dec 11
     
  22. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    Willmma Can you supply a link to where you are updating the ELO for the NHL The link in the OP take me to Wikipedia but no update on NHL standings.

    Thanks
     
  23. Nizdizzle

    Nizdizzle Offseason Is The Worst Season

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    He is updating the standings in the first post of this thread.
     
  24. libertarian

    libertarian Registered User

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    Thanks.
    My bad. I thought he was updating on a other site. It didn't occur to me that he was updating his OP. Should of checked. :)
     
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  25. The Green Unit

    The Green Unit Lost Cosmonaut

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    I also view Tampa, STL, LA and Nashville (in no particular order) as the best teams in the league. Interesting.
     

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