Value of: NYR - MON and CAL

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by bernmeister, Jun 11, 2018.

  1. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    In another thread a Habs fan proposed 3OA for Skjei + 9OA, which was instantly rejected for too much demanded.
    Previously, there had been some consensus on 90A + Howden for 3OA + a second, which IMO should be the Hawks at 38OA.
    Canadiens need a foundation piece for LD; Skjei is 90% of pre-injury McDonagh rfa for long term deal covering his prime. Howden at 2C during 2019 is another immediate help added.
    Rangers not giving away Skjei, but they have 4LDs not immediately an option who they want to promote as soon as they become ready and, until moved, Staal and Smith. Keeping 9OA = flexibility; add 3OA for possible impact asset down the road and slightly upgrade 2 2nds in this deal = win win.

    Skjei rfa + Howden elc + 39OA [Rangers 2nd] + 48OA [Devils 2nd]
    for
    Mon. 1st 3OA + Mon. 2nd [35OA] + Hawks 2nd [38OA]

    Skjei a very, very strong skater LD who actually plays d, barely entering his prime at 24, helps get Montreal defense back on track and anchors it for 6 or so years. Howden, a late 1st, projects as a 2C and more plausibly may be ready as early as late this season or the following but a surprise out of camp on a team w/lack of pivot depth is not inconceivable. Instant adds, acceptable price to flip two 2nds. NY gambles w/higher pick.
    ___________________

    Zucarello 4.5 expiring to Calgary for rights to RD Fox, with conditional add on applicable 2021 covering small chance if he walks.

    The value of Zuc is a 2018 1st around 15-22, approx.; Panthers not biting with FL 2018 1st [15OA]. You can gamble due to injury another team will pay more at the deadline, but acquiring club gets more use out of rental at start of season than after its start. Flames get good productive guy, 1 full yr rental w/inside track to extend. Fox has high upside, but said he would definitely go back to Harvard and is a legit risk to go college UFA, esp since CAL has stacked RD side. For Flames, worst is they get likely shot in the arm w/Zuc one year only, and a couple of years later, have to pony up a pick if Fox walks, but that is a greater risk with them than with a club like Rangers who need RD. For NYR the gain is RD sooner than later even if not immediately, although they too have some risk Fox walks and they would have to wait for conditional compensation.

    Thoughts?
     
  2. alpine4life

    alpine4life Registered User

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    I dont think that Montreal do that trade, they need thet 3rd (or 9th) to start the rebuild

    CGY's proposal seem a bit low for NYR depending on wht the compensation if Zuccarello would be (a 2nd at least)
     
  3. beowulf

    beowulf Not a nice guy.

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    No, just no. The Habs are not going into a draft in which they have the 3rd overall pick with no 1st rounder at all...
     
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  4. Shootertooter

    Shootertooter Registered User

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    Skjei and Howden should be enough for the 3OA as far as value goes. That said, neither team should make the trade.
    Trading Skjei would be a mistake. I think he is very comparable to a young McD. I would prefer to keep Howden as well in case Andersson/Chytil don't work out at center or if the Rangers don't draft a C.

    As far as the Rangers needs........they need young D established men. Skjei is that.
    Why trade Skjei at this point? He is projecting to be a top 4........likely top pair guy. Isn't that what every GM prays a young player turns into? Sign him for 5 or 6yrs. I would consider moving Skjei in the right deal but a guy like Trouba should be coming back. I don't like the idea of moving a valuable, team need........known commodity for picks.
     
  5. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Mon -
    they want 9OA, they want Skjei, can't have both.
    Skjei is a known commodity, helps immediately. 9OA unclear, seems less upside, but a crap shoot. 3OA again a crapshoot [even 1OAs can fail, ask EDM], but seems to have more upside than Skjei but both likely 2 years development to arrive.
    Not sure Skjei is not very seriously considered by Canadiens.

    Zuc return is low for NY compared to ideal best, but even expecting DeAngelo to continue to improve, RD is thin, and it is a surplus for Flames.
    Timing is an x factor that impacts theoretical value, as does risk.

    CAL took Fox, presumably cause he was bpa, but he seems to want to set his own timetable, which is unclear, and he seems content enough to go back to college for now. Whether or not that is for real or whether or not he wants to do less time in the minors and get to NHL sooner than later is unclear. However, barring trades, Flames RD is full at present.
    They have to live with that pick or move him.
    Fox has value, but it is discounted due to uncertainty Fox controls.
    The Rangers offer immediate help with Zuc asset, and the conditional only kicks in years down the road IF Fox does not get to Rangers, presumably going college UFA a bit down the road.

    Rangers risk no immediate help to gamble that Fox signs and best case scenario, can make Rangers sooner than later.

    I consider the risk-reward fair all around.
     
  6. beowulf

    beowulf Not a nice guy.

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    The Habs risk for potential reward here is not worth it. A potential star player, good potential, at 3rd overall. For a middle 6 dman and a best case scenario ok 2nd line center is not worth it.
     
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  7. Lays

    Lays Unofficial leader of NYR tank

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    Why are we trading Skjei and why are you so bent on trading him? He's a young 3D with potential to round out into a 2D. Our defense without him
    Staal-Shatty
    Smith-Pionk
    O Gara-Deangelo
    I want Hughes just as much as the next guy but that defense is just disrespectful
     
  8. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    I concur on the value being enough, would like small upgrade on the two 2nds, but no need to quibble too much.

    As to the rest of it, your comments in this post reflect safe sensibility.
    However, that does not get enough assets fast enough, and that requires a prudent risk to go balls to the wall sometimes.

    Setting aside whether or not we might get Hanifin, the questions really are:

    1) do we want to max the opportunities for our 4 prospects -Hajek, Rykov, Lindgren, and Day by moving Skjei for assets now and once feasible jettisoning Smith/Staal and using placeholders in the meantime. Day needs another whole year don't expect more than cup o coffee 5 or so taste end of season games this campaign, 2019. But the other 3 may get here earlier. We want flexibility to promote them as soon as feasible. Using them as productive assets going forward and repurposing Skjei for a significant enough return is desirable, and I consider it an acceptable risk. I agree it is important not to rush these four, a temptation to be avoided. However, without the desperation of the win now crowd in control, I am optimistic GMJG and new HC will be sensible.

    2) if you accept #1 above, the question then becomes when do you trade Skjei? The answer is when you get the most return. There is no 111% certain answer as to exactly when/what that is, but unarguably:
    a) Moving him now eliminates risk of him becoming injured later, decreasing or eliminating value; and
    b) Now would enable you to take advantage of the particularly strong 2018 draft.

    The Rangers need difference makers, and moving up to 3OA could improve chances to get one.
     
  9. Captain Wolverine

    Captain Wolverine Registered User

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    There was never a consensus on 90A + Howden for 3OA + a second.

    And Montreal HARD passes on the other trade. They're not moving the 3rd OA + and not getting back a high pick without a young #1C or a prospect with a good chance at being a #1C.
     
  10. Fault and Fracture

    Fault and Fracture Habanero

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    Skjei and Howden for 3OA? Yeah no thanks.
     
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  11. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Skjei and Howden were both 1sts who would command more than where selected if redrafted, so the underline is not spot on.

    Skjei is grossly underrated here.
    He is 1LD on several clubs.
    He would instantly be the best defensive D on Canadiens.
    He IS 90% of what McDonagh was pre-injuries.

    Howden has not shown as much comparatively over a much shorter duration as player. But a very solid 2C is strong add. I am not saying he is gonna be elite, etc., but if Stepan who was 2nd round pick was approx 20th best pivot making him a 1C, I would expect that eventually Howden would offer similar profile but more talented, meaning that a technical 1C designation is not beyond realm of possibility. So underrating there as well.

    If you want to gamble on the most upside at 3OA, that is fair enough, but let's just be honest:
    a) Habs are not in as good shape as Rangers as to depth. You could get a top heavy team which can't move up due to lack of talent throughout the roster. If you have two generational guys like Sid and Geno, solid anchor on D in Letang, and an on/off usually on outstanding netminder in MAF, you may pull that off, but usually, in addition to being lucky and relatively injury free, a squad has to be deep to go somewhere.
    b) This is only one extra player but that is basically a foundation one piece for D and F each.
    c) There is a risk factor. The risk is virtually nil for Skjei; we know what he is and the only question is if he plateaus or continues to grow; Howden is unknown, but we do have his track record so far, and it looks good. This is compared to a draftee, although I give you the 3OA in foreign experience looks likely to be a good bet. Again, the Oilers had a couple of solid misses at 1OA, and it has been crippling for them. Risk should not paralyze with fear, but should not be ignored, either.
     
  12. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Pls read my posts and like I said, big picture, long term.
     
  13. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    It was a small sample size of perhaps 10 or so.
    Copacetic or yes from most.
    Don't remember any hard no(s).
     
  14. Captain Wolverine

    Captain Wolverine Registered User

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    They were there.
     
  15. beowulf

    beowulf Not a nice guy.

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    You are basically talking up the Rangers player like a used car salesman trying to sell a average to good car as is it is some classic. Redrafts don't exist, trying to say that the two players would e drafted earlier now is pointless. Both were very late 1st round picks and nothing will change that.

    So because the Habs lack depth they should give up the 3rd overall to add two players, again one a good dman but mostly a second pairing guy who is not physical and the other that might turn into a second line center, who most likely will never have the impact of the player taken 3rd overall? And on top of that you expect the Habs to drop spots with with 2 of their second round picks?

    There are other ways of building up depth and it's not by giving a team that you will be fighting for a playoff spot down the road a potential star player.
     
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  16. Rangers_23

    Rangers_23 Constantly rebuked and rebuffed

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    Trading a young talented established D because you have an abundance of prospects at that position that have proven nothing at the NHL level isn't "Big picture, long term", it's horrible asset management and the type of thing that gets GMs fired.
     
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  17. Janne Niinimaa

    Janne Niinimaa "Character"

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    Skjei + Howden + 39th OA for 3rd OA + small add.

    That's the only trade I'd consider involving these pieces without getting a 1st round pick back.
     
  18. danyhabsfan

    danyhabsfan Registered User

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    I'd try to add Hayes in the trade

    He could play center for us

    A position we need help
     
  19. TGWL

    TGWL Registered User

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    There's no deal here with all these moving parts.

    Brady isn't for sale just for the hell of making a trade. We have to ice a team next season. We can't include all our players and nearest prospects in deals for picks.

    Brady plus 9th is way too much from the Rangers, like you said.

    I don't know that Howden plus 9th would be enough for the 3rd. In a way, they get a center, move down and might be able to grab another center, but having them add the 38th pick is a joke.

    The 9th must be included. There's no trade here without including the 9th. Even then, Montreal might not want to move down.
     
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  20. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    Middle 6 d man???. Was the best player on the ice in a 6 game series round 1 2017 at 23 years old.
    If the Rangers trade Skjei it better not be for potential. It better be for another established young dman. He's all they have right now (future dman) especially if Hajek doesn't pan out.
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2018
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  21. Kobe Armstrong

    Kobe Armstrong Registered User

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    This needs to happen so we can finally get that Skjei-Weber pairing. Too good of a linguistic opportunity to pass up.
     
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  22. TGWL

    TGWL Registered User

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    Hayes had a good season. The only way I'd trade him is if we were guaranteed Zadina, but even then 9th plus Hayes seems like a bit too much.

    Maybe something around Hayes, 9th, 48th for #35th. #3? I don't know if I'd be happy with this deal or not. But something needs to be added if we're including Hayes and 9th.
     
  23. Lays

    Lays Unofficial leader of NYR tank

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    Eh not really. We have a deep defensive system it’s just we don’t have any potential top pairing D besides him (hopefully Pionk can reach that level)
    For future defense
    Skjei
    Pionk
    Hajek
    Rykov
    Lindgren
    Deangelo
    Bigras
    Day
    Crawley
    Sjalin
    Hopefully we draft a defenseman at 9 (unless Wahlstrom is there) and maybe even pick up 2 more since we have 5 picks in the first 2 rounds) trading Skjei is dumb though
     
  24. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    That was my point ;) wasn't referring to the depth but rather someone in Skjei's age range who could fit into a top pairing. I should have clarified that he's all we have in the sense of filling that top pairing role.
    The defensive system is/will be deep and as wonderful as it is to have 5 or 6 potential NHL dmen in the system it doesn't mean any of those guys will even be able to fill a top 4 role nevermind a top 2 role.
    The hope is for sure they are able to draft a guy who can be a potential top pairing dman but who knows the Rangers may go forward heavy in the first round?
    For these reasons trading Skjei is very dumb unless its bringing back a top pairing guy in his age range.
     
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  25. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    That would a terrific pairing. Didn't Mete look pretty good for a while there with Weber earlier in season (I like Mete)???
    A steal of a pick for montreal in the third round I believe. 19 year old probably just has to get used to full brutal NHL season.
     

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