Value of: NYR - MON and CAL

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by bernmeister, Jun 11, 2018.

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  1. Jared Dunn

    Jared Dunn Registered User

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    I like the pieces coming back but 9OA absolutely needs to as well
     
  2. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    Hayes is kind of guy that you had to watch last year to fully appreciate so I expect him to be really undervalued by other teams fans.. He got the top matchups of others teams top lines and his defensive game jumped leaps and bounds. As well as his PK play But thats not sexy like the centerman who puts up 70 plus points. He scored 25 last season and probably would have scored 30 plus with easier matchups.
     
  3. Bought Out Browsy

    Bought Out Browsy Not A Flamer

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    If Zucc shot right I’d trade Fox for him, but Calgary doesn’t need another left shot top 6 and I still have hopes Fox will sign with us.
     
  4. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Thanks as to value recognized.
    Can't change how he shoots, but if it helps he is comfortable at either W.
     
    MoneyHandsMonahan likes this.
  5. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Sorry, but that is borderline dishonest.
    The unwritten rule is you are somewhat guided by draft position as a basis of market consensus until you have performance. The later you are away from cost control [elc-rfa years], the more the salary, assuming no unusual x factors interrupting market forces, reflects the general consensus of value.

    Skjei has shown WAY enough in elc years to demonstrate he would be worth more than a late 1st, b'c he actually IS.

    Howden has not gotten here yet, so it is not as clear cut. But he projects he would go earlier.

    If ya don't want to give up the 3rd OA fine, but who is being the disingenuous negotiator by suggesting there is not a lot on the table to consider?
     
  6. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    That depends on what you get for that established D.
     
  7. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Although I consider my OP to be fair as is, I would consider giving you the early 2nd outright, and taking something minimal.


    Hayes stays.
    Big pivot who can skate, play def C, chips in.
    Sorry, totally not available.

    It's one thing to play with fire when you have 4 replacements around the corner.
    NY has no one like Hayes except closest is Zib, who may be moved to Canes ++++ on both sides for 2OA.
     
  8. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Sorry, but this is not "all these moving parts", not yet anyway.

    Brady not moved 'for the hell of" it.
    His status as an asset is being repurposed.

    We have to field a team -- whoop de doo, Archie B, wherever you are.
    I don't care if they suck ass for half a year as long as they are fast tracked to come out of it looking good. I want max opportunity for the 4 prospects, Day I said is too green, the others probably also but not to the same extent. Make room to promote asap, and let's use the draft to do what we can to get need assets.

    As to the rest of it...
    I get neither side wants to pay or especially overpay.

    we also have to look carefully at what moving up entails.
    It's insane to move from 14 to 8 and heavy overpay.

    Moving 8 to 2 is totally different.

    3 this year is not quite 2, so there is some wriggle room to be slightly generous in accommodation without overpay.
     
  9. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    While I think there is more avenue for continued constructive discussion --- and thanks to all for providing that so far --- there may be a possible solution to what otherwise seems an impass.

    First, I don't agree that value is off.
    Thus it is a hard choice for Habs, do they get more use out of the 2 known assets or out of the potential of the pick.

    Now I went this way to take 9 off the table so Rangers could it use it, or have flexibility with it.

    Say the core deal remains
    Skjei rfa + Howden elc + 39OA [Rangers 2nd] + 48OA [Devils 2nd]
    for
    Mon. 1st 3OA + Mon. 2nd [35OA] + Hawks 2nd [38OA]

    and we add 9OA to montreal.


    Then, value is way skewed, so what do Habs give back to Rangers for that?

    Start with 2019 1st unprotected and add from there...
     
  10. Klaus3154

    Klaus3154 Registered User

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    With all these trade proposals you would think the Rangers want to get rid of Skjei. There is zero desire to trade him. It would take an insane offer to pry hi from the organization. I can assure you if the Rangers do trade him it would be a trade the HL boards would rip the other team to shreds. Tired of hearing what his ‘fair value’ is considered. Zero desire to trade him at what the rest of the league considers his value.
     
  11. xNogaitx

    xNogaitx Registered User

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    I think you're simply over-valuing your players here.
    In a best-case scenario (not the reality yet, it may or may not pan out this way long term.), Skej becomes a 2D (currently a 3D, and he's 24 so he's pretty much at that tipping point of whether he makes that one last leap or not) and Howden becomes a defensive/two way 2C.

    Now here's the problem, I do like both of these players, but they alone do not warrant you a 3OA spot by themselves unless the GM is plain stupid. (Ok, fair, Bergevin is stupid, but you know what I mean).

    The potential of a 3OA winger is one of a Laine, P. Kane, Kucherov, Kessel, etc. type player. Not saying that Zadina will be like any of those guys, but it's the potential.

    Now if you draft Zadina, you have him under team control most realistically for the next 8 or so years. (Potentially longer, unless traded or something else.)

    Skej is 24, not 18, Howden is making the jump at the AHL level next year and hopefully will come up next season or later on to become an NHL. Maybe he could become a 2C in 2-3 seasons from now.

    Those are "patching" moves, not a rebuild which is where MTL is headed.


    You also need to consider team needs. Mtl already has a defensive/two way 2b/3C in Danault. They already have an offensive/two way 2C prospect in Poehling. So really, unless you provide a potential 1C under the age of 22 or a 1LD under the age of 22, you're not giving up anything of incentive for Mtl to move down. Remember, short of an overpayment, the team drafting early will not move down and that applies to any pick/team in the top 10.

    To add on top of that MTL dropping its 2 earliest 2nd rounders is also wishful thinking. It's you wanting a top 3 pick, a top 10 pick, 2 more 1st rounders, and 2 extremely early 2nds in a deep draft.

    You may not like the price, but if the Rangers really want Montreal to back up 6 spots, you'll have to include Chytil and they'll only send back or swap one of those 2nds.

    3OA
    35OA

    For

    9OA
    Chytil/L. Andersson
    Skej



    You won't like it, but that's what it would take for a GM to drop off the top 3 in any given draft, regardless of the team. An overpayment is a keyword in these situations.
     
  12. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    Montreal would take that deal and run like the wind. They may still may end up with a player at 9OA who could be just as good as zadina. Maybe if that was for the 2OA just maybe the Rangers make that deal.

    Basically its Boqvist/Kotkaniemi and Chytil and Skjei for Zadina. My goodness Zadina better be a sure 40 plus goal scorer and more.
     
  13. draft day

    draft day Registered User

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    No chance in hell the Habs do that.
     
  14. draft day

    draft day Registered User

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    This is what it would take.
     
  15. xNogaitx

    xNogaitx Registered User

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    Like I said, it's not me "making that offer" here, as value wise it's obviously a win from the Habs standpoint.

    But that's the thing with top 3 picks, you can say "oh there is a drop off after 2, or after 4, or after X," but the reality being, and it's been proven by Capfriendly earlier today in a tweet showing all top 10 picks traded away in the last decade, is that unless a major overpayment is proposed, such that the odds of the team surrendering the top pick is 90% sure of winning that trade, it won't happen.

    Teams who do go for that proposal regardless do so because their scouting department (not the fans, not anybody else who has varrying opinions on the player available at position X) believe that this guy will be a major game changer and fits their needs best for the next 8-15 years.
     
  16. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    It would be complete highway robbery. Both teams better off sticking with their picks (montreal 5 in first two rounds and Rangers 5 as well). Their respective prospect pools should be markedly better after this draft.
     
  17. xNogaitx

    xNogaitx Registered User

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    Couldn't agree more.

    The only way this happens is if Rangers management has a hard-on on Zadina and believe he'll be a game changer for them.
     
  18. Lebowski

    Lebowski El Duderino

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    I don't think Skej is valued nearly as much outside of NY as Rangers fans seem to think.

    I wouldn't trade the 3rd overall for two Skejs.
     
  19. Walk with Elias

    Walk with Elias Who wants to walk with Elias? Sponsor

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    your obsession with a RHS is getting ridiculous. There are almost no good RHS options available, so an improvement is an improvement regardless of which way they shoot
     
  20. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Agreed that while we want to repurpose his full asset value, no one in NY should want to give this guy away for anything less.
     
  21. Klaus3154

    Klaus3154 Registered User

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    I would swap Zucc for Fox in a heartbeat. He is from NY so I don’t see him having a problem signing with them and he has tremendous upside. Only reason I wouldn’t do it is I feel there is a decent chance he will stay all 4 years at Harvard then chooses to become a free agent in 2020 The Rangers would have a good chance to sign him then and get another asset from Zucc
     
  22. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Thanks for reply.
    Keeping it polite we agree to disagree.
    Skjei is not a 3LD
    I realize you want to posture to get more, but that is just not correct.

    The Rangers do NOT have to massive overpay UNLESS they both think it is in their self interest to do so, and because of what Montreal decides.

    Montreal has to decide if there is profit on the table or not.
    If it thinks there is, it has to decide if it is enough.
    If it is, profit.
    If not, it asks for more and may be accommodated or not.

    But the point is
    overask
    may equal
    overreach
    which likely does not =
    overpayment

    2 young foundation pieces likely to succeed available now for 1 piece reasonable likelihood that it will be theoretically better is more than fair.

    If Habs want more on table from NY, they have to pony up more as well.
     
  23. DaPhazz

    DaPhazz Registered User

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    I though the exact same thing :laugh:
     
  24. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Montreal does not get THAT deal.
     
  25. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Any 2 of Skjei/Howden/9OA = some variation of 3OA +.

    If all 3 are on the table - a thought that can be entertained for discussion purposes - that is too much over and above unless Habs add.

    The trick would be to figure out what both sides can live with.

    Montreal 2019 1st unprotected is a year away. Assume some improvement by Habs mgmt; pre lottery slotting is 10th out from bottom. We then know there can be variance post lottery, either up or down, but the usually only one team per year moves notable slots in a given year. [This year Canes, previous year Devils benefit; prior Avs suffered at hands of others.] So for extrapolation purposes, we can guess next year's Montreal 1st should be roughly where NYR's is this year.

    Of course, this year is a better year to select with a deeper draft, and there is delayed gratification; Rangers need compensation, preferably this year to offset.

    Interesting to see what proposals come up over next 24 hours...
     

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