Value of: NYR - MON and CAL

Discussion in 'Trade Rumors and Free Agent Talk' started by bernmeister, Jun 11, 2018.

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  1. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

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    I'm interested in a Skjei/Weber pairing but not desperate for it. Adding Howden is another solid add but were are talking about the 3rd OA pick here. If the Rangers want to get Zadina, they will have to give us something we can't refuse. Skjei and Howden are late 1st round picks. The 9th OA pick would need to be added in some sort of package IMO. No way the Habs go into this draft with no 1st round pick and trading our 3rd OA for two guys drafted late 1st round.

    As far as Mete... 4th round pick at 100th overall. His skating is very elite level and he has great vision. Needs to work on his shot.
     
  2. pld459666

    pld459666 Registered User

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    And even then, if I'm Montreal I pass.
     
  3. Janne Niinimaa

    Janne Niinimaa "Character"

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    Probably. But it gets the ball rolling.
     
  4. Benstheman

    Benstheman Registered User

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    As a Habs fan, i absolutely do Skjei + 9OA for 3OA + Toronto 2018 2nd
     
  5. bl02

    bl02 Registered User

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    Fair enough but all I'm saying is Skjei is worth much more than a late first (albeit I know he was a late first when he was drafted). He's 24 and just scratching the surface. We already saw that he can perform at a very high level in both playoffs he's been in. I know some fans may not agree but Skjei and our 9th OA have pretty much equal value. Skjei>>>>our 26th or 28th pick.
     
  6. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

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    It's hard to measure. Skjei is also a RFA and getting raises in the next few years. The 3rd OA pick provides great value on that ELC too. So does the 9th
     
  7. Karri Ramone

    Karri Ramone Registered User

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    I would do that Zuccarello trade if we can't sign or trade for a top 6 RHS power forward this summer. Zucc is obviously not a RHS or a power forward but he is a hell of a player and would make the Flames offense better immediately. Not an ideal match for our top line RW slot on paper I guess, but if Hudler clicked with Gaudreau then why not Zuccarello.

    Fox may turn out good, real good, but I fear he'll Schultz us after he decides to graduate from Harvard in 2020. And I wouldn't even blame him. He'll fit the NYR rebuild timeline perfectly.
     
  8. TGWL

    TGWL Registered User

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    That's a bit ridiculous. Rangers wouldn't do 9th plus Skjei for the 3rd alone. Chytil is surely worth more than the 35th.

    Rangers wouldn't do 9th plus Chytil for 3rd alone and Skjei is surely worth more than the 35th.

    Rangers wouldn't do Chytil plus Skjei for the 3rd alone and the 9th is surely worth more than the 35th.

    Anyway you position this, it's bad. This isn't "What it will take". This is what you want but no GM is going to think that's a realistic ask. If Chytil was going in this draft, where do you rank him? Top 8, Top 10? top 15? Rangers most likely wouldn't be trying to get both picks from Montreal anyway so the 35th isn't needed unless Rangers are sending a lot of picks and trying to recoup one coming back.
     
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  9. Jared Dunn

    Jared Dunn Registered User

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    See although I like them both I firmly disagree Skej + Howden = 3rd OA + or even 3rd OA alone. If you replace the Rangers picks with the 9th OA in the original deal I'd probably bite, most I'd add to that is maybe a guy like Hudon or Lernout
     
  10. xNogaitx

    xNogaitx Registered User

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    Read my other posts below, it's not about a "realistic" ask, and it's not about a deal that will actually take place as it won't.

    We are literally discussing a trade down from top 3 to bottom of the top 10. There hasn't been a top 4 pick trade down in well over a decade.

    The reasoning for it is due to the "unreasonable" ask that would be required for such movement to take place.

    Of course that Chytil + 9OA + Skej is > 3OA + 35OA in terms of pure value, but then again that's literally what one would expect from such a trade.

    Hanifin alone, whose younger and cheaper and better than Skej commands more than 7 OA right now on the market.

    The reason why? Say Zadina hits his full potential and becomes a game-breaker, 40G scorer in the NHL whereas Skej remains a second pairing guy, Howden ends up struggling to translate his game into the NHL and becomes a 3C, Chytil doesn't make it, and the 9OA pick ends up not making the big leagues and the 35OA becomes a top 6F/top 4D/Starting G. Whose laughing then?

    That's why an overpayment will always be required of teams in the cap era. Successful teams are built through the draft from many subsequent early picks, so unless you put forward an offer that any reasonable GM can't say no to, it won't happen. Even if, on the surface, it looks even / fair value.
     
  11. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    concur, if all 3 it MUST be a SIGNIFICANT add
     
  12. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    We can certainly take Howden out and roll w/Skjei + 9OA, but we need a better piece than Tor 2nd.

    will try to suggest something hopefully mutually palatable by end of day at latest
     
  13. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    so much the bold.

    I think we all have ballpark expectations of returns for certain players.

    Even though he's a W, I don't expect Habs to cough up MaxPax for 10OA, for example.

    Zib, he's not worth moving unless, even if we add, 2OA is coming back. 3OA will not cut it this year's draft.

    Skjei, very best most favorable scenario, he is the core of what gets 5OA. Could see add likely, but not huge one. Least in this draft I consider is 9OA [if we didn't have it] and I want a moderate or better add coming back.

    If we consider this calmly, we can all win win here.
    Rangers want to move up, have LDs coming and want legit value to repurpose Skjei
    Habs need top LD and Skjei, showing up now as a defensively solid, outstanding skater 90% of what pre-injury McDonagh was, fits their bill, AND they want 9OA as well.

    We can come up with something if we think this through.
     
  14. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    We don't have to quibble about Howden.
    The core can be Skjei + 9OA
    but we need something more than just 3OA and nominally or insignificant add.

    But we are close, IMO.
     
  15. haveandare

    haveandare Registered User

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    None of those guys have played a single game, let alone showed they can take second pairing minutes or more. If you want to move Skjei to make room for them, now is way way too early. Rykov isn't even in this country yet and that entire group together has 18 AHL games and 0 NHL games between them.
     
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  16. TooLegitToQuit

    TooLegitToQuit Loyal Habs Fan

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    The Habs are interested in Skjei but it's hard to determine his ceiling. He would fit very well with Weber but we know you want the 3rd OA pick. If the Habs are trading the 3rd OA pick, we want youth in return so the 9th OA needs to be in play.

    Not sure I like it but the 3rd OA + for Skjei and the 9th OA. The question comes down to what is the add from the Habs. Most Habs fans don't add much and assets like Lindgren, Hudon, Bitten, Ikonen, late 2nd may be in play.

    The other things to factor in is Skjei needs a new contract where the picks are team controlled assets on ELC very soon. Habs need to get a center as well and the guy we may want might not be there with the 9th pick. Lets say we draft Zadina and see if Kotkaniemi is there at 9. If so, I make this deal and we figure out what add makes sense for the Rangers. If Kotkaniemi is not there at 9, then I am not sure we should make this trade.
     
  17. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    This should do it!

    3OA is worth more than Skjei, but not night and day more, just an appreciable chunk more.

    9OA is worth less than Montreal 2019 1st unprotected which is what I suggested before.
    Figure some improvement, Habs upgrade a few slots. Chance that could move either way, but %wise, it is reasonable to expect it stays the same as would be prelottery.
    However, 2018 = immediate acquisition, faster development/readiness and while 2019 projects as a good draft year, this 2018 class is the one considered deeper and better.

    The difference between the above swaps are not =.
    Rangers would have to cough up more.

    What about both NY 2nds, their own and the Devs, 39OA + 48OA, respectively?

    Skjei + 9OA + 39OA + 48OA
    for
    3OA + Montreal 2019 1st unprotected

    Rangers advance, get a nugget for tomorrow, and can keep Howden

    Canadiens get build piece LD, still select w/in top 10, and 2 more 2nds, surely they can use w/4 they already have, and help to move into late 1st round once or twice is an option.

    Everybody gets enough of what they want.
    win win!
     
  18. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    I respect you are more cautious then I am and wish to build in stages
    That is reasonable and sensible. But in this set of facts it is not necessarily our best play.

    THIS is the better draft, and we need to pay to move up.
    We need difference makers.

    Assuming we added ZERO more LD, that is 4 guys we are looking IN THE NEAR FUTURE to cut the mustard, and that is reasonable. If we get something substantial to help us going forward, I don't care how much we suck ass for 2018 half of this season, as long as we set up to rebound.

    If we can strategically move Staal/Smith, we do so.
    That's even more room.
    If not, they cover 2 of 3 slots and we can see who pushes to earn a shot now.

    Four guys, 9 games each to not trigger elc this season.
    = 36 games total, roughly third of the season.
    Let the kids play.
    Send 'em up down as nec., but show if they work really hard with instruction we will fast track them -- if they can prove they are ready.

    But the key here is that is secondary long term big picture.
    The key is repurposing Skjei into asset value other needed.
    And let's not ignore that such is not needed.
     
  19. haveandare

    haveandare Registered User

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    I think we're risking a lot more than 2018 if we count on those guys to be the D going forward. They are almost totally unproven. Say we move Brady and then Lindgren ends up busting, Rykov never comes over and Hajek tops out a second pairing d-man. Then we have an even worse defense than we do now and little to move around to upgrade it. None of those outcomes are that unrealistic. I hope they won't come to be, but it's not impossible.

    Imo you don't move current proven players to make room for players who have barely even played in the AHL yet. I disagree that its reasonable to count on them to be dependable NHL players in the near future.
     
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  20. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    On this one, my friend, we agree to disagree.
    It's not wrong to say there is a worst case scenario, but let's be honest that that is what that is, not a likely scenario.

    What is the likelihood of any of these, % wise?
    What is the likelihood they MOSTLY or ALL happen?

    Possible, yes, likely no.
    Also you don't bring up Day who as I said needs another full year. Day was thought to be top pick talent, slid due to concerns about maturity and eating habits/weight, and has promptly turned it around upon our selection.

    Lindgren ends up busting,
    Lindgren is not as top as say, Liljigen, but he is not bottom of the rung either. Very small % of total bust; could perform above or below middle pair.

    Rykov never comes over ...
    No reason to base this. Plus he's young, even IF someway somehow he were delayed a year or so, does not = bust if he gets here 'soon enough' and plays well. Guarantee to play well? No. But more likely to succeed than not based on the hoopla when we got him. Esp since, isn't this guy supposed to be mostly stay at home def strong basic d type?

    .... and Hajek tops out a second pairing d-man.
    By next season, not this one coming up, min 4 guys, likely more, competing for 3 slots. 3rd pair is usually serviceable with stopgap if you are really stuck, and for sake of polite discussion this assumes we are.
    So it really is 4 guys min for 2 slots.
    That is not bad odds with that particular group.

    The thing here is esp to best rebuild, you need to move a couple of stops backwards and take the hit to then advance a few steps forward = profit.

    We do need to hang on to certain guys, but if Skjei is core payment on 3OA, he's gotta go.
     
  21. haveandare

    haveandare Registered User

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    Yeah, we have to agree to disagree here.

    I think there's a very legitimate chance that none of these guys equal Skjei when all is said and done. I don't think it's the most likely outcome, and I definitely don't want it to be the eventual outcome, but unproven players not being able to cut it happens a lot more than unproven players making it and doing well. And here we're talking about guys who have barely even had a taste of the AHL. If they had more AHL experience I'd totally agree, but for me juniors success isn't enough to move proven NHL players based on.

    Also, there's alway top talent at the very top of the draft. Imo 3OA this year isn't going to be much different than 3OA most other years. This year, 2OA is a lot better than usual.
     
  22. IceDaddy

    IceDaddy Registered User

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    Maybe, but it wont roll very far. I cant really see a scenario where The Habs trade the 3rd OA without getting a top 10 pick + a significant piece or two.
     
  23. bernmeister

    bernmeister Registered User

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    Just to be clear, I am not saying it is certain these guys = or surpass Skjei when all is said and done, although Day seems to have a lot of the physical gifts needed to get there if he can learn how to play D at NHL level, then learn to play it as well as Skjei.

    I am saying that while it would be an embarrassment of riches if all three others turned into 1LD, we only need one each to match up to 1LD, 2LD and 3LD. And since 3LD is not super impossible to get or temporary placeholder til we upgrade there, what we really have is competition for 3 guys for 2 slots, with Day the following season.

    You are right.
    Not a sure thing.
    But worth the risk, imo.
     
  24. Deficient Mode

    Deficient Mode Registered User

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    Yep. An average NHL player and a potentially average NHL player aren't worth the decent shot at drafting a star player at 3 OA. Not even close.
     
  25. haveandare

    haveandare Registered User

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    Not sure a d-man who puts up 39 points as a rookie is average. I think picks are really fetishized here, but even I'm not sure Habs would do that deal for 3OA. I personally wouldn't do it as NYR either. Skjei is a somewhat proven commodity in a position we badly need young but experienced players in.
     
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