Pretending U R An Optimist - When do the Canucks Make the Playoffs/Contend?

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by VancouverJagger, Jun 9, 2018.

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  1. VancouverJagger

    VancouverJagger Not trying to fit in

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    Ok this mayyyy be a bit of a stretch for many of you here.........But first......a peace offering. I like to tease the Benning Bashers but I can completely emphasize and understand why many of you share the sentiments that you do (am I a bad person for taking pleasure in attempting to upset other people?.............It's hereditary - I couldn't help it). Anyhoo, having the overall worst record for the last 3 seasons will do that to you.......I get it..........

    HOWEVER for the sake of this post we are going to pretend that it's an ideal world........A world in which Jim Benning is *gasp.........*quickly blurting out "Competent at his job." (Yes i know - for many of you this took on a Lord of The Rings type twist - please bear with me).

    We are going to travel into the future (how much is up to you but please.......let's stay focused). Our GM (dear sweet Jimbo as he's affectionately referred to by our fanbase) is still a weeee bit generous with his contracts and for some reason he still reminds you of that John Malkovich character....hmmmmm......... Lenny you think his name was. - however.............. you have learned to live with his idiosyncrasies seeing as his drafting has been on point. Yes - in that department you give to him a solid B or better grade.

    He still could be a bit more astute with his trades however some of the pieces that he has acquired have developed nicely and overall things have been passable to very good in that department (depending on how far some of us can stretch our imaginations).

    So keeping within the realm of how far one can expand their mind how soon is it before the Canucks

    A) Seriously Contend for a playoff spot (late in the season not in November).
    B) Make the playoffs
    C) Win more than 2 rounds in the playoffs

    I would love to hear everyone's candid (but optimistic within reason) thoughts on this.

    The reason I wrote this post is this........I was doing an accounting of what pieces we have in our system and honestly I am pretty damn excited. I am an optimist by nature (yes I know........many of you are secretly hating me now.......an optimist however shrugs this off and shows compassion for angry people so your musings will do no good and are in vain.....#sorrynotsorry).

    Anyhoo, I have said repeatedly that I think EP is going to be the best Canuck EVER. Yes - this kid is that effing good. Brock is Brock and looks like he's going to be a solid sniper for years to come - our powerplay is going to be DEADLY for the next decade plus. What's not to like here? I'm also very high on Gaudette - I absolutely love his attitude. EXACTLY what you want in a hockey player. My thoughts are that he is going to be a very solid 2 way player for many years to come. He's a team first high character guy (who I think is one day going to be wearing a letter for us). I am also extremely high on Demko........he's also going to be very very solid (his development path reminds me a lot of Schneider - it takes goalies a long efffing time to develop). Our goaltending issues are solved for the next decade-ish with him in net.

    So it all comes down to what is the biggest key for me and that is defense. Which right now even an optimist can recognize as a tire fire.......UNLESS GUDBRANSON somehow discovers someone that he can play with he's gone ( I am open to either scenario.......for me while it may be a slight stretch it is within my realm of thinking to envision him as a decent #5 who is paired with someone who can skate and transition the puck and isn't a liability. Hmmmmmm......... I'm guessing roughly 77% of people rolled their eyes after reading that statement....it's ok.....I'm happy you have made it this far.

    Getting a solid top 2 Dman at #7 is crucial to this plan (a #1 stud would be nice but I could certainly live with a 2). To a lesser extend but still pretty darn pertinent to this is Juolevi progressing into a solid #3 who can man the 1st or 2nd powerplay and get 35-45 pts a year.

    I also fully believe Tryamkin will be back on our team as a rock solid top 4 Dman but for your purposes if this isn't realistic don't use it - although wait - I just realized that if you can't stretch your mind that far then you definitely would not have made it past the Benning is competent part.

    Soooooooo...........Mr. Optimistic.........Once you put it like that then you start to think that mayyyybe, just mayyyybe there might be some hope.........that we are not doomed to years of lottery picks. That there is a realistic chance you might see the Cup in Vancouver before your bitterness consumes you and you die a quiet and lonely death. Maybe........just maybe.....................
     
  2. RobertKron

    RobertKron Registered User

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    ............
     
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  3. Dave Lister

    Dave Lister 3rd Tech 1169

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    A) 2 years
    B) 3 years
    C) 10 years
     
  4. VancouverJagger

    VancouverJagger Not trying to fit in

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    I understand this may have been too much for you........we thank you for at least giving us a courtesy of a reply and are hopeful that in the future you can more fully contribute to our musings.
     
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  5. Josepho

    Josepho at least we aren't ottawa

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    this greatly depends on who our next gm is and im expecting to see one within two years.

    these threads will always be weird and virtually impossible to predict with a team as terrible as ours and the general randomness of this sport.
     
  6. Luongos Knob

    Luongos Knob Registered User

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    Until they get a better defense they arent going anywhere
     
  7. VancouverJagger

    VancouverJagger Not trying to fit in

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    Damn........I thought I gave specific instructions here........I have to understand I suppose that the words "Benning" and "competent" are just too much of a stretch for a lot of you.........*sigh
     
  8. timbermen

    timbermen Registered User

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    Free Agency is going to be important for the Canucks this off season.They have money to pay some key FA's.I think they'll be great in two to three years.
     
  9. Dave Lister

    Dave Lister 3rd Tech 1169

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    Cut the crap
     
  10. VancouverJagger

    VancouverJagger Not trying to fit in

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    *sigh - Keyboard Warriors everywhere............I was playing nice.......(For some reason I just don't respond well to direct orders - it's hereditary sorry - I can't help it). :help:
     
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  11. lawrence

    lawrence Registered User

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    A) Seriously Contend for a playoff spot (late in the season not in November). 2019
    B) Make the playoffs 2020
    C) Win more than 2 rounds in the playoffs 2023,
     
  12. Josepho

    Josepho at least we aren't ottawa

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    I got a little off topic but "competent" is an extremely broad word and it probably massively depends on the draft lottery and what the **** happens to other teams in our division.
     
  13. lindgren

    lindgren Registered User

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    I think, maybe, I appreciate the OP, but at the same time I'm confused.

    I don't think Benning is competent. If he suddenly became competent, and if the prospects already in the system reached their ceiling, then perhaps the Canucks could contend quite quickly.

    They could also move into contention quite quickly if Dylan Blujus and Evan McEneny were to become above average top pairing guys this season, but I don't see the point in making predictions based on such a scenario, because nothing suggests it's plausible. Similarly, little suggests Benning becoming competent is plausible.

    I think of myself as being optimistic simply for thinking it's not impossible that Benning will actually hold on to the 7th pick upcoming and actually find a way to acquire another mid-round pick in the draft. Very unlikely, but not impossible.
     
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  14. VancouverJagger

    VancouverJagger Not trying to fit in

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    Yes I get it = the sheer enormity that it would take for the Benning Bashers to ponder such a fallacy is just unfathomable.........I get it.........sadly I don't think we can be friends............best of luck though
     
  15. vancityluongo

    vancityluongo Twin Benning Sponsor

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    A) and B) are relatively meaningless. The NHL rewards incompetence, and more than half the league makes the playoffs. They could literally just ice the exact roster they have slated right now for the next three years, pick the highest rated player on Bob McKenzie's list for each draft pick and be a decent team over a specific 50-60 game stretch to get them near or to the playoffs without any further intervention required. Like simulating 3 seasons in Be A GM mode. (this would have led to a better result than the current situation if that's what had happened when Benning took over, but aside from that...)

    So I can see the Canucks making the playoffs in 2021. The core will be Pettersson, Boeser, Horvat, this year's pick and next year's pick, or whatever equivalent assets are traded for those picks. But that's the thing; as long as you don't trade them, the NHL is handing out loser teams an opportunity to get a star every single year. Odds are they will hit another Pettersson level prospect over the next couple years. A couple B level prospects like Demko and Gaudette will pan out. They'll probably add a free agent or two that are actually decent to complement the group. LA, SJ and Anaheim all look like they might easily fall off by then; the Canucks would just need to beat out one of Edmonton, Calgary, Arizona and the expansion Seattle team for a spot. I wouldn't bet on it, but under the premise of optimism, that seems realistic. This timeline speeds up depending on how the above named players do obviously, but also on a) if we get a competent GM b) if we win the draft lottery. It slows down if Benning trades away first round picks or cripples the cap further.

    C) is simply not in the projectable horizon for this team. Too many assumptions need to be made. Anything beyond 6 months, let alone 2 years is ridiculous to try and project; I just can't see the Canucks being a conference finalist for at least a half decade. There are too many holes and not nearly enough pipedreams where even projecting every prospect to realize their maximum potential gets us to the level of real contenders.
     
  16. VanJack

    VanJack Registered User

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    Marc Andre Fleury proved how far you can go when your goaltender is consistently better than the guy at the other end of the ice. If Demko is 'all world' I could see the Canucks in serious discussion for a playoff spot sooner than a lot of people think.
     
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  17. rypper

    rypper EhlersHorvatTkachuk

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    They don't see the playoffs again until 2-3 years after Benning/Linden are fired.
     
  18. lindgren

    lindgren Registered User

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    I can ponder it. I just would like clarification on the point of it, if I think it's extremely unlikely.

    I can predict where the Canucks would be in two years if it turns out that Petrus Palmu turns out to be the next Martin St Louis, no question. It's a straight-forward thought experiment. It would be an immense help to the rebuild and perhaps put the Canucks in the playoffs within two years. If Petersson turns out to be the equivalent of Henrik Sedin, and Dahlen the next Daniel, I'd say cup contenders within three, providing there's a little luck on the back end. Following the same logic, if Benning becomes competent, I'd put the Canucks in the playoffs in three.

    If Benning fails to improve as GM, and he stays on for another ten years, when do you think the Canucks make the playoffs? My guess is not within the decade. What do you think?
     
  19. VancouverJagger

    VancouverJagger Not trying to fit in

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    Well here's where we differ - At current level I give Benning a B grade - overall a borderline C+ to C............(IMO he has improved at his job). If he fails to improve and stays where he is currently at - for me I am fine with that. We make the playoffs within 4 years........Most likely pushing for one in year 3.........and making it in 4.
     
  20. cookiefest

    cookiefest nothing matters anyway.

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    When they get a new management team.

    Who knows about making the playoffs, over half the teams in the league make the playoffs every year and if the talk of expanding the playoff field even more would make it even more meaningless than it already is.

    As far as contending or making or winning a round or two, it's just not realistic to envision that happening until at least the latter part of the next decade. Way too many flaws throughout the whole organization, no amount of minor player movement will fix it. Despite multiple finishes at the bottom of the league, there shockingly hasn't been enough internal depth acquired via the draft in recent years.

    The gradual accumulation of quality youth through the draft is the key to replenishing the organizational depth, it simply can't be done by signing patchwork free agents or trading picks for tweener players in their 20s resulting in multiple drafts with less than a pick per round. The fact that we still haven't seen Benning and co. show a proclivity to stockpile picks to help strengthen their systemic depth is concerning, that's ultimately that will help turn the ship around and the longer it's delayed, the longer it will take to become a playoff team/contender.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2018
  21. Master Radishes

    Master Radishes Registered User

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    My optimistic scenario:

    2018-19 - bottom of the barrel, high pick
    2019-20 - start off poorly, Benning is finally fired, improved end of year but still well out of playoffs
    2020-21 - young core makes a leap, surprise contender for wildcard, possibly just make it, but out in first round
    2021-22 - solid playoff contender, free agents/trades that solidify depth, still out in first two rounds
    2022-23 - the jump is made to potential Cup contender, out in third round
    2023-24 - win the Cup, hell freezes over
     
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  22. RobertKron

    RobertKron Registered User

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    You give the GM a B grade, but expect him to potentially miss the playoffs for six straight seasons. This is what you expect - in an optimistic scenario, no less - out of a GM that you believe is good at his job.
     
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2018
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  23. ghozt

    ghozt Registered User

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    Don't think theres much meaning predicting playoffs. Our goal is winning the Stanley Cup. Making the playoffs, winning rounds and losing there should be failed iterations of trying to win it all.

    That being said, if we look at the Capitals. Only Boeser would be comparable to the core players on that team. So if Boeser is their TJ Oshie. We're missing an Ovechkin, Kuznestov, Backstrom, and Carlson.
     
  24. geebaan

    geebaan 7th round busted

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    My god. I wish I had a job where I could be an abject failure for 6 freaking years and people still give me a B grade. What a life that would be.
     
  25. Luck 6

    Luck 6 \\_______

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    I’d say 2 seasons from now we are in contention for a playoff spot. I see us making it for sure by the following season - this is of course assuming optimism that some of our key guys progress as expected. To start winning in the playoffs? I’d say 5 years.
     

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