Prospect Info: SHL champion Elias Pettersson | SHL scoring champion, playoff MVP, WC gold

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by Zombotron, Dec 29, 2017.

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  1. BATJAM

    BATJAM Registered User

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    It's beyond pathetic the way that some of you berate that poster. Do you actually feel better afterwards? If you already know his/her post history, either play along, ignore, or shut the **** up.

    I personally find him/her unintentionally hilarious and for sure, it's sometimes cringe worthy; but the way some of you lash out shows more about your own abhorrent character.

    I would much rather read that poster's errors than yours.
     
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  2. Melvin

    Melvin Abaddon Sponsor

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    Especially when a few people have already responded, really no need to pile on.
     
  3. cookiefest

    cookiefest nothing matters anyway.

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    Interesting tidbit from Botch's prospect profiles about the selection process the team went through.

    [​IMG]
     
  4. Melvin

    Melvin Abaddon Sponsor

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    I have been looking at players heights and weights at time of draft to try to find evidence that under-weight players are some sort of red flag but I really just can't find any correlation.

    A player's weight is only relevant of course in the context of his height, so I calculated the BMI for every player drafted from 2010-2017. Pettersson was listed at 6'1" and 165 according to NHL.com, which translates to a BMI of 21.77. In terms of other forwards in this range, here is a sampling of some of the better ones:

    Robin Kovacs
    Calle Jarnkrok
    Adam Tambellini
    Alex Formenton
    Saku Mäenalanen
    Connor Brown
    Christophe Lalancette
    Adam Marsh
    Miles Wood

    Plus a few defenders:

    Mike Reilly
    Brett Pesce
    Jonas Brodin

    I won't post all of my analysis here, but basically I can't find any evidence that BMI as calculated from a player's listed height and weight at time of draft has any real predictive ability, once you already account for height (which does have predictive power.) In other words, if a player isn't short, there is no evidence I can find that looking at his weight gives you any additional insight. All of the players listed above who made it have of course since added some weight.

    Anyway, just thought I'd share. I know most people here weren't overly concerned about it anyway but after looking pretty extensively at the data I find no reason to be concerned.

    EDIT: Replaced Kerfoot as I had him with the wrong height in my database, as pointed out below. Changed to Formenton who is a better comparable.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2018
  5. bobbyb2009

    bobbyb2009 Registered User

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    Would love to understand your formula for calculation. Please share. I am quite interested.

    However, I don't understand your premise for your stats, but maybe your explanation will help. The Canucks in the 2017 young stars roster, list him as 6'2" and 161. All over the internet he is listed as 6'2-6'3. The 6'1 thing is a significant statistical difference in any calculation I have seen. We have heard EP himself say he got himself up to approx 167, so that might be helpful?

    Also, because I have met Alex Kerfoot, I looked him up, believing he is relatively much shorter. He is listed at 5'10 and 175 on average.

    How are these two forwards, for example, in the same category for any comparison of body type and strength in your view?

    Regardless, I am hoping for something more from him than what we have seen from this list in the past...
     
  6. Melvin

    Melvin Abaddon Sponsor

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    In order to provide an accurate comparison, I need to compare all players at the same point in time, using the same source.

    For this, I went with the NHL.com draft search. He is listed there at 6'1", 165. Kerfoot in 2012 was at 5'9", 153. I made a mistake here, and had Kerfoot at 5'10" in my database, so you're right. His draft BMI is higher than I had; thanks for pointing it out.

    The formula for BMI is simply kg/m2. For Pettersson, 74.84/(1.85^2) ~= 21.8. For Kerfoot (using the corrected height) 69.4/(1.75^2) ~= 22.7. Because I erroneously had him at 5'10" I originally had his BMI closer to Elias.

    Kerfoot apparently added around 22 pounds after being drafted in 2012, as did Jarnkrok and most of the other players who are comparable. If Pettersson plays in the NHL at his current weight that will be quite unusual for a player of his height, but we already knew that and we already know that he is unusual. It is already difficult to find comparable players to him because of what he's achieved. My interest was just more in trying to see if players projected worse if they were drafted with low weights for their heights, and I didn't find that to be the case.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2018
  7. bobbyb2009

    bobbyb2009 Registered User

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    Thanks. Your objective makes sense. I guess your results, however, point to EP having to put on weight to be successful (as the others you have used??).

    I guess I was wondering if you were using a different calculation of some sort, because the comparisons didn't seem apples to apples to me- I don't see most of those players as comparables and I have a tough tough time finding any comparable to his body type actually playing in the NHL?? I have looked and thought through this a bit too.

    Regardless, I appreciate the work you put in for sure! And I think it is a really interesting thing to consider, look at, and research.

    I think most of the discussion on here is centered around those who suggest EP is fine at this weight he is today in today's NHL vs others who suggest he will have to gain some weight to be successful. In looking at that argument, we would have to compare players to the height/weight he will play at today (6'2.5 as he is suggested to be now, and 167 lbs) to others who have been successful at this comparable height/weight while actually playing- don't we?

    Kerfoot put on 22 lbs (as did the others, you mention). If EP did that with the right kind of weight, would people make his weight an issue? But being 4-5 inches taller, EP would have to put on more than 22 lbs to be comparable, would he not?

    Unless, as mentioned, your point is, lots of players with low BMI are drafted, but then they build strength and weight and increase that BMI and have success in the NHL. I think that statement is clear. Skinny kids get drafted and they they have to work out more, mature, gain "man strength" before they can play in the NHL successfully or not. That seems pretty intuitive?

    If your point is lots of payers with "low" BMI play in the NHL successfully, I am not sure about this yet. I can't find those comparable players just yet and I have not seen any suggested by those who point at small players and say, look at X, he is successful.

    Regardless, EP will very likely do what those on your list have done and put on some strength over time.

    The different but inherent question for me now is should he play in the NHL until he does gain this strength?

    Mostly, I want him to play centre... and I would rather him do that outside the NHL while he gains this strength rather than rush him to the nil and possibly have him in another role while risking failure in his development curve, but that is for a completely other argument, a stand alone from this discussion, than the one about his strength.

    And to be honest, as a fan, I want to watch the kid play as soon as possible.

    Cheers
     
  8. Melvin

    Melvin Abaddon Sponsor

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    I agree with all of this. There is not much evidence to support EP can play in the NHL at his current height and weight. For him to do so would be unprecedented, especially at C. There are simply no 6'2 centres who played in the NHL at under 175 pounds. Having said that, he has already done some things that nobody else has done before, so who knows? But based on precedent it would seem that the people wanting him to add weight have some basis in their arguments.

    The question for me is, how much weight does he need to put on, above and beyond the amount that he would "naturally" put on if he just continued doing what he always does? I would assume that there is a standard amount that players add between the time they are drafted and the time they make their NHL debut. If Elias does not put in any concerted effort to increase his mass, he would still put on some weight just via his normal routines, would he not? And then it's, how much more does he need to do, above and beyond that?

    With regards to my original post, basically I went looking for something and I did not find it, so that is probably why it wasn't very interesting. It would have been more interesting had I found something to suggest that players with a low BMI tend to struggle to put on weight and make the NHL, but that is not what I found, which is good for the Canucks but bad for making an interesting post. :D

    The only reason Elias fell in the draft was his weight. Statistically, I had him as #1 in the entire draft. Nobody doubted his talent, but some teams were scared by his weight. And the thing is, with what I've researched so far I just can't find anything to justify this. Of all the reasons for a player to fall in the draft, his weight does not appear to be a good one. This doesn't necessarily mean that he doesn't need to put on some weight, but historical precedent suggests that he can and he will.
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2018
  9. CanaFan

    CanaFan Registered User

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    From what I saw at the WC, it’s not about a specific weight but just being stronger. Stronger core and stronger legs especially. He is too easily knocked off balance when he has the puck which will be a problem at the NHL level. No player can avoid contact 100% of the time. Once defenders know your weakness, they’ll simply push or bump him and his loss of balance will allow them to retrieve the puck. It won’t mater how quick his hands or dekes are if he can’t take even a bit of physical contact. But if he can add that strength and balance, then he can absorb this contact without losing his stride/balance, which will allow his puckhandling and vision to flourish. Whatever that translates to weight-wise, I don’t know. But I think gaining lower body strength is essential to him succeeding this upcoming season.
     
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  10. Melvin

    Melvin Abaddon Sponsor

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    Yes, and the ice size. That has been and remains the biggest question mark for me. The smaller the ice surface, the more congested the traffic and the more the lack of strength would be a concern (I would think.) Elias has yet to prove that he can dominate on the NHL-sized rinks to the level that he has on the larger ones.
     
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  11. bobbyb2009

    bobbyb2009 Registered User

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    That made me chuckle. I thought it was interesting.

    To take this on in this posting climate where we, as a fanbase, really want the conditions for his success to be there. So pointing out that there is no players who have succeeded at this weight/height is a big deal- and interesting!

    Yeah, time is the issue. I think he just needs time and he will naturally put some on like others have done. And if he works hard, he will put more on too, I suppose.

    And I agree, how much is best to put on and how fast is a great question, and maybe research can give us some insight. As you say, I also think he is unique, and the general rules might not completely apply, but the basic issue will remain.

    He could use getting stronger, and he almost certainly needs to. He will be more successful anywhere as he gains strength as long as it isn't useless mass that makes him slower, etc..

    To end up the best player, how much, how fast, while playing where and in what position are questions to answer, IMO. But it looks like to expect success while throwing him into the NHL at current height/weight is almost unprecedented in the NHL.

    Good thing he has 5 months to see what strides he can make.
     
  12. CanaFan

    CanaFan Registered User

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    Pretty much. It definitely makes avoiding contact harder as the space is both tighter and the players close a lot faster and with more contact. I don’t see the same elusiveness in EP as you see in Marner, Gaudreau, or Kane - which isn’t surprising given he is 6’2 and they are all 5’11 or less - so I think he’ll play a lot more like Malkin, which uses speed and wingspan to avoid defenders. But Malkin is built like a truck and can absorb a ton of contact as he swoops around the ice, which is where EP needs to get closer to. He’ll never have Malkin’s physique but if he can just get close then I think his chances for success will go up significantly.
     
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  13. bobbyb2009

    bobbyb2009 Registered User

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    Agreed!

    It isn't a specific weight issue but the result of gaining the strength will almost certainly mean more weight. And to But Gillis posts, EP height/weight issue has no historical success in the league, but this would be because of the lack of strength/balance that results from this BMI package.

    I also agree with But Gillis comments about the ice size. Additional adaptation for EP to go through that is likely going to be effected by his strength gains or lack thereof.
     
  14. NucksRock

    NucksRock Registered User

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    Great post. I agree that Patrick Kane for instance at 167 lbs (or Marner) is a very different consideration from a player who's 6'1/6'2. Those guys were closer to their "ideal / mature" weight (seems thats the point you're making) than EP.

    EP however, doesn't need more than 20 lbs imho (Kerfoot) , I would 'think' to play in the NHL. If he's 170 ish now and can put on 20, he's at 190, and that's not bad, actually decent for the NHL, pretty close to Hank tbh

    At 167/170 at his height, irrespective of his talent and quickess, I would be concerned to see him in the NHL. Guys like buff, chara, getzlaf, even Doughty can and will rag doll him (because of his talent and the effort to intimidate), and that can lead to injury and a loss of confidence.

    We should want him (or any prospect for that matter) to be ready in their game AND physically and mentally for the NHL. If not players can bust. The AHL is there for a reason - development in all the areas above, not just skills. JB and TL will make the right decision.
     
  15. Yggdrasil

    Yggdrasil Registered User

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    i guess, since that he is 6'2, he could potentially fill out 200 lbs in his prime, 190 is more ideal for him atm to "start" excelling in the NHL.

    those bones will continue to grow as his weight will, he a very hard worker and will bump his weight where he needs to be at the moment.
     
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  16. petrishriekandgo

    petrishriekandgo Why not us?

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    He'll come into camp at 180... I mean, after the season he's had everything else is gravy no? He'll be slathering that on everything... ;)
     
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  17. stampedingviking

    stampedingviking Registered User

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    Why should posters be happy with an obvious troll?
     
  18. Pastor Of Muppetz

    Pastor Of Muppetz Registered User

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  19. Jay Cee

    Jay Cee P4G

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    "We" most assuredly directly implicates John Weisbrod, his boss, who has taken direct ownership of amateur scouting. Are you ready to handle that?
     
  20. petrishriekandgo

    petrishriekandgo Why not us?

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  21. Megaterio Llamas

    Megaterio Llamas woo eggenberger

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    We almost had Perrault you know. If not for a spin of the wheel of fortune our franchise history might have looked quite different.

    But then we wouldn't be the same cursed 'Nuckleheads we are today.
     
  22. Megaterio Llamas

    Megaterio Llamas woo eggenberger

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    I appreciate that Brackett said "we felt really good about him" Not 'we felt real good about him'. Leads me to believe it was a Brackett decision, not Linden/Benning.
     
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  23. F A N

    F A N Registered User

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    The decision shouldn't be Linden/Benning. They are suppose to be tie-breakers or hold vetos. It's weird that people think that Benning, as someone who was a Director of Amateur Scouting, would not let his Director of Amateur Scouting or scouting staff do their jobs.

    Benning promoted Brackett from a part-time scout to the Director of Amateur Scouting. You would think that Benning trusts him to help deliver his vision at the draft.
     
  24. Eddy Punch Clock

    Eddy Punch Clock Jack Adams 2028

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    Need to add "Gold Medal winner" to the title...
     
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  25. petrishriekandgo

    petrishriekandgo Why not us?

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    His trophy case from this year:

    [​IMG]
     
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