The Advanced Stats Thread Episode VII: An Ode to the Sanity of Silverfish

Discussion in 'New York Rangers' started by Gardner McKay, Apr 20, 2018.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
View Users: View Users
  1. Oscar Lindberg

    Oscar Lindberg Registered User

    Joined:
    Dec 14, 2015
    Messages:
    6,422
    Likes Received:
    1,716
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Location:
    CA
    Nothing bad haha

    Others seem to think the Rangers may have the largest fan base that is into advanced stats

    Which may be true, I'm not sure how quantifiable of a thing that is
     
  2. Bozle

    Bozle Showtime, baby

    Joined:
    Oct 8, 2010
    Messages:
    70,605
    Likes Received:
    5,749
    Trophy Points:
    157
    Location:
    Playing video games
    Rangers fans most advanced

    Bruins/Ducks fans most primitive IMO
     
    JoeThorntonsRooster likes this.
  3. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    18,934
    Likes Received:
    6,698
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Location:
    Bayside
    I'd believe it.

    With all the different major Rangers blogs/groups out there all advocating for advanced stats (except for FullTilt/4EverBlueshirts), with the exposure they have, I could see that thought to be true.

    But yeah it's hard to quantify it.
     
  4. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

    Joined:
    May 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,758
    Likes Received:
    1,752
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Location:
    PA from SI
    We are the best.
     
  5. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    I think a lot of it is population based. HFNYR is probably one of the top-5 team boards in terms of user size, I'm guessing. So with that, you'll have people that lean every which way which makes this place equally great and infuriating. Means we have a lot of 'fancystat' people and a lot of people who hate 'fancystats' and everything in between.

    Anyway, @LiasAndersson, let's clear up some of your BS from that thread:

    Dylan McIlrath > Cam Fowler
    Nobody has ever said this. It may have been said in jest. Or, it may have been pointed out that McIlrath was playing better, at the time, which was probably the case depending on some metrics.

    Cody Franson is elite and should sign to a multi year deal
    Apparently saying that a guy is clearly a good 3RD and could step in for spot-duty at 2RD and should be signed to a league minimum contract == elite. Who knew!

    "X, Y players are good because I sorted a chart by lowest/highest Corsi Against/For and their names came up..."
    It was probably pointed out that this is a good way to recognize who might be playing well, and who might be playing poorly. I do this a lot as a way to recognize where to begin my analysis of players.

    **** like that
    No, **** like this.

    Hey @East Coast Bias

     
    Last edited: Jun 6, 2018
    Machinehead likes this.
  6. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    18,088
    Likes Received:
    4,142
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Machinehead did say some crazy things during the battle of Cam Fowler :laugh:

    You’re also still correct about Franson, and your take on him vs Smith is one of the smartest things you’ve predicted thus far. Even if he can’t skate for **** and I hate his game, the moneypuck argument there was pretty flawless
     
  7. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    Win some, lose some.
     
  8. East Coast Bias

    East Coast Bias Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2014
    Messages:
    4,559
    Likes Received:
    2,684
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Location:
    NYC

    Awesome, thank you! I'm signed up
     
    silverfish likes this.
  9. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    So this is going around:



    I think the value is closer than most people would admit. And I think it's a good deal for NYR if ROR was making like $5.5 to $6m AAV and not $7.5m AAV. We can't forget he's only a year older than Hayes.

    However, the reason I'm bringing this here is because ROR was terrible this year in terms of EV scoring. His splits are bonk.

    P160:
    EV: 0.95
    PP: 3.87
    All: 1.78

    Hayes for comparison:
    EV: 1.5
    PP: 4.32
    All: 1.59

    *Hayes also played 45 more PK minutes. Take that into account for all situations scoring.

    Just something that struck me as odd. This was always Eichel's story, too, until this year, where he had a great EV season.
     
  10. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    18,934
    Likes Received:
    6,698
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Location:
    Bayside
    I would love ROR on this team. I think I would do that package.
     
  11. Mac n Gs

    Mac n Gs Gorton plz

    Joined:
    Jan 17, 2014
    Messages:
    18,088
    Likes Received:
    4,142
    Trophy Points:
    141
    ROR admitted he was in a bad place mentally this season because of how toxic losing is in Buffalo.

    Dude is a great player, so I wouldn’t be mad about trading for him. I am iffy about his cap hit too.
     
  12. Harbour Dog

    Harbour Dog Registered User

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2015
    Messages:
    1,564
    Likes Received:
    1,334
    Trophy Points:
    94
    Location:
    Grande Prairie
    I'd probably do this.

    I would do everything in my power to get some equivalent package replacing Hayes with Spooner+/Namestnikov+, but in lieu of that, I'd pull the trigger anyway.

    Wouldn't like to see Hayes go, but I don't expect ROR's last season to become the norm. Buffalo is a wasteland.
     
  13. Off Sides

    Off Sides Registered User

    Joined:
    Sep 8, 2008
    Messages:
    4,974
    Likes Received:
    645
    Trophy Points:
    143
    Location:
    Cankickville
    I don't really like ROR's contract, so I'd vote no.
     
  14. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

    Joined:
    May 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,758
    Likes Received:
    1,752
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Location:
    PA from SI
    The value is probably fair, but I think I would like to see what Hayes can do with better linemates. I still think he has untapped offensive ability.
     
    Bozle likes this.
  15. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    18,934
    Likes Received:
    6,698
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Location:
    Bayside
    You can say the same for ROR
     
  16. PlamsUnlimited

    PlamsUnlimited G R O T O N S

    Joined:
    May 14, 2010
    Messages:
    26,333
    Likes Received:
    984
    Trophy Points:
    139
    Occupation:
    Goalie
    Location:
    Lancaster, NY
    Hard no from me. That contract is pretty rough
     
    Off Sides and Bozle like this.
  17. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    If he got some better teammates, some lighter deployment, and keeps up his PP production, he can hit 70 points.
     
    Irishguy42 likes this.
  18. DanielBrassard

    DanielBrassard If it's not sophisticated, it's not Vigneault.

    Joined:
    May 6, 2014
    Messages:
    8,758
    Likes Received:
    1,752
    Trophy Points:
    111
    Location:
    PA from SI
    That's true. Hayes will cost less though, and I wouldn't be surprised if he could hit 55+ points with better linemates and more PP time. I completely understand why you would be in favor of this trade, It's probably in the Rangers favor honestly. It would probably take more than Hayes, a late 1st, and Day who really has no value right now.
     
  19. JoeThorntonsRooster

    JoeThorntonsRooster There is no anti-Leafs bias on HFBoards

    Joined:
    May 14, 2012
    Messages:
    17,828
    Likes Received:
    5,001
    Trophy Points:
    167
    Gender:
    Male
    Occupation:
    College Student
    Location:
    Fremont, CA
    I think San Jose’s fan base is pretty heavy into advanced stats as well, but that section has died out a bit on HF over the last few years.

    I’m really curious to see what you guys think of Washington winning with a ~48% CF%. To me, the most glaring thing is that of the strong Corsi Cup winners of 2012-2016, the most important thing was at least one superstar dominating; not their strong possession numbers. And when it comes to a team like Vegas who lacks a superstar but puts up, solid advanced stats, against a team like Washington who has multiple superstars and weak advanced stats, the superstars reign supreme.

    Thoughts?
     
  20. effen

    effen Registered User

    Joined:
    Feb 3, 2018
    Messages:
    905
    Likes Received:
    394
    Trophy Points:
    46
    Gender:
    Male
    25 teams would pay more than that for ROR. He's so, so, so good.

    I'd take him 100 times out of 100. Contract shmontract.
     
  21. Machinehead

    Machinehead Ferrari Crew

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    83,744
    Likes Received:
    11,288
    Trophy Points:
    156
    Occupation:
    Professor
    Location:
    NYC
    I had some thoughts on the main board which you saw, but in addition, Micah had a model that predicted the Caps either going to the SCF or winning it, don't remember which.

    He used all the conventional stuff, but it was two years of data instead of just this season. This is the second year in a row the Cup was won by a team that normally has great underlying numbers, but didn't the season in question. Maybe there's more to the idea that we should be using bigger samples.
     
    JoeThorntonsRooster likes this.
  22. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    I think I remember running their splits and they saw some improvement in the 2nd half of the season, and were obviously a much better CF% team in the playoffs. What could be a big factor is that the as the season went on, Trotz seemed to realize that Orpik, well, isn't that great. His ice time saw a constant decrease over time, and then adding Kempny at the deadline certainly did not hurt.
     
  23. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    ShotPlot

    This is cool. Unnecessary for NHL data as we already get the coords there. Could prove useful for leagues that don't supply XY though.
     
  24. Irishguy42

    Irishguy42 Registered User Sponsor

    Joined:
    Sep 11, 2015
    Messages:
    18,934
    Likes Received:
    6,698
    Trophy Points:
    141
    Location:
    Bayside
    Could use just a simple ability to differentiate between two teams. Whether that's a drop-down menu, or like a "hold down ___ button and click to denote Team Y, and hold down _____ and click to denote Team X"

    Pretty quick and easy shot plot though, if you're only doing a single team.
     
  25. silverfish

    silverfish wrong as usual

    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2008
    Messages:
    34,554
    Likes Received:
    4,211
    Trophy Points:
    186
    Location:
    under the bridge
    The use case here is prob to just plot one team on each side with just remembering you'll need to mirror in period 2. Makes more sense to do it that way so you have all three periods and can view the whole game rather than two periods on one side and one period on the other.
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

monitoring_string = "358c248ada348a047a4b9bb27a146148"