The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by But Gillis, May 27, 2018.

  1. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    I've been doing research into BMI (for Pettersson) and while I don't really see anything to suggest that a low BMI is a bad sign, I do see some data that suggests that a high BMI can be a warning sign for forwards. Going to keep looking at it and might post something if I find anything or might put it on the blog.

    Would be interesting if there is anything there because it's not something I've ever read about anywhere. Some forwards with a draft BMI above 28 would include Virtanen, Domi, Ritchie, and the recently drafted Andersson.

    Anyway, just another thing to look at. The fun with this is that you notice stuff that you didn't think about before and then you dig into it and, well, maybe something is there or maybe it isn't but there are always new ideas to look into.
     
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  2. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Awesome post my friend. Much respect.
     
  3. racerjoe

    racerjoe Registered User

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    I find him very hard to get a feel for because he also plays soooo many minutes. How much of a factor is that on his cons as I hear he becomes lazier the more he plays, and how much of a factor is that on him scoring more?

    But tough to not ignore the huge numbers.
     
  4. cookiefest

    cookiefest nothing matters anyway.

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    Good post mate. It’s interesting to see that something as simple as this can outpreform the work that scouts a lot of times. They seem to be overthinking these selections sometimes which leads to guys like Point and Arvidsson falling significantly because of size despite being incredibly productive in their draft years, similar thing could be happening with Bouchard.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2018
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  5. vancityluongo

    vancityluongo Twin Benning Sponsor

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    The lack of Quinn Hughes on the 2018 list is really surprising to me. From what I can tell, the model had Werenski 6th in 2015 when he was actually drafted 8th. Any idea on what changed where this statline is top-6:

    U. of MichiganBig-103591625

    and this:

    U. of MichiganBig-1037524
    29​

    doesn't even crack the top-20? Can't possibly be the size difference impacting the ranking that much? And I cannot believe that this draft is just that much more stacked than 2015.
     
  6. opendoor

    opendoor Registered User

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    Height probably is most of that. 5'10" vs 6'2" is a pretty big difference for a defender.

    Also not sure if the model differentiates between birth years or just year of draft eligibility, but Hughes was born in October so he's a 1999 born player in a 2018 draft whereas Werenski was a 1997 born player in the 2015 draft.
     
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  7. drax0s

    drax0s Registered User

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    Looking at recent drafts, I have a feeling that your model might be undervaluing players from the USHL because of its lack of strength prior to the past 5 or so years. There have been a lot of solid prospects to come out of the USHL in the last 5 years or so compared to its history.
     
  8. I in the Eye

    I in the Eye Drop a ball it falls

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    Yes, there was a discussion about BMI here before. The argument was that Virtanen's cognitive functioning was perhaps being impacted because of his obesity (according to a study)... and if Virtanen lost weight, he would be a smarter hockey player.

    If interested, have a read:
    http://hfboards.mandatory.com/threa...ake-virtanen-xv.2168775/page-6#post-126356661
     
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  9. opendoor

    opendoor Registered User

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    Yeah the USHL is interesting. Since 2010, pretty much every U18 forward who is 5'10" or taller and managed 1.15 pts/g and above has turned into at least a decent NHLer or looks to be on track:

    Matthews
    Eichel
    Keller
    Milano
    Roslovic
    Bellows
    Tkachuk
    Connor
    Tuch
    Fischer
    Boeser
    Hitchcock
    Schmaltz
     
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  10. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    I will respond to questions more specifically when I get home, but more generally I try to actually read up on all the various leagues to understand how they came into existence and gain understanding of how the league quality might have changed eg if it was forked from another league or whatever.

    I am opposed to arbitrarily saying, okay, as of this draft year use this factor for this league unless there was a known change in the league that can be used to explain the increase in quality. I prefer smoothed factors based on larger data sets as opposed to ones that jump all over the place due to a small sample size eg annual changes.

    Did something change in the ushl recently that can explain what we have sort of anecdotally witnessed? I'll look into this more when I get home.
     
  11. NoShowWilly

    NoShowWilly Registered User

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    Thanks for this. Love that you have a list for this coming draft.
     
  12. krutovsdonut

    krutovsdonut holy makarov!

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    where would your system rank cam barker?
     
  13. drax0s

    drax0s Registered User

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    The only article i can find talks about the American Development Model which could be correlated? Have a read (link), but it seems like there were a number of changes to address burnout of kids (originally 44% quit by 9 years old) and focus on skills development in 2009 and remove body checking for U12s.

    Might just be a case of drawing upon a wider pool of kids and developing more talent because of it.
     
  14. BerSTUzzi

    BerSTUzzi Registered User

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    Not that I don’t believe Bouchard needs to make improvements in his skating but he is miles better than the Barker glacier.
     
  15. NoShowWilly

    NoShowWilly Registered User

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    I think the comparison between the two is horse**** but Barker would fare well in this considering the data being used.

    There is no consideration of team in there(2004 medicine hat was elite)
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2018
  16. krutovsdonut

    krutovsdonut holy makarov!

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    yeah i am not comparing the players, but trying to figure out if the system adjusts for barkers. it certainly looks like the system if weighted heavily towards scoring and also to forwards. not saying that is wrong, but curious as to whether it has any checks and balances that would identify high scorers who will not translate.

    i should also say i have often wondered whether it might be a smart draft policy to solely chase offence and then trade surplus scorers for other pieces. you could then gear your developmental program to that skillset. sort of nashville in reverse. this is a pretty good simulation of what that looks like and it is not half bad.
     
  17. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    I don't know if I will ever go all the way back to the 2004 draft because the data is getting pretty stale at that point, but yeah, he would probably be ranked fairly highly. In the top 10 I am guessing.
     
  18. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    It's a couple things that have happened here.

    The first is that I was having trouble with the college numbers with the re-org and everything, and after fighting with them awhile I basically just scrapped my worked and used Vollman's numbers for NCAA, re-indexed against the OHL. My concerns with his numbers don't really apply to the NCAA so I think it's fine. In doing so, Werenski dropped in the rankings because he has the Big 10 as weaker than I had it before.

    And yeah, the other part of it is height. There is a pretty big discount on defenders who are 5'10" like Hughes. Really have to have a lot of confidence in your scouting to make him the highest one drafted in 30 years.
     
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  19. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    I would love to know how I can "adjust for barkers." I suspect that if I knew how to do this I would already be running an NHL team.

    Like, you know he was drafted 3rd overall, right?

    He would probably be ranked somewhere between 7-10th depending on the other players in that draft. He was drafted 3rd. /Shrug, what should I do?
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2018
  20. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Matthews was drafted out of the Swiss league.

    You said "since 2010" but most of these guys are very, very recent. Guys like Milano and Roslovic have not really proven a lot in the NHL, and some of these guys haven't even debuted.

    The names on your list who were drafted from 2010-2014 are: Milano, Tuch. All of the rest of the list was 2015-2017.

    I have Ryan Hitchcock at 5'9" and 49 P in 53 GP.
     
  21. krutovsdonut

    krutovsdonut holy makarov!

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    ok, it may have been an overly simplistic comment. your system emphasizes scoring and emphasizes forwards. if you refined it endlessly just with that purpose perhaps you could find variables that identified scoring busts and then you'd have an extremely good drafting system for answering one question alone, and you would get a job because that question is so important.

    think of it as a line cook tasked to produce a delicious potato roasted in garlic, that everyone would enjoy, but which form only a part of larger meal, albeit an important part.

    so what you are doing appeals to me in the sense i can see a benefit of ranking players efficiently by several different very focussed inquiries instead of trying to rank everything in a single system.
    .
     
  22. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    My point WRT Bouchard was that he put up utterly insane numbers and people are talking about him falling out of the top ten. That's crazy to me.

    Barker didn't have anywhere near those kind of numbers and still went 3rd overall.
     
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  23. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Really interesting that Tkachuk and Boqvist fall completely off the map. I’m not too surprised about Tkachuk but am quite surprised about Boqvist. I realize Boqvist has had his issues defensively, and has also had some concussion issues, but I figured that his skating, offensive skills, etc., would make him look appealing from an advanced stats perspective.
     
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  24. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    Keep this **** coming man.

    I’m extremely interested in your findings.
     
  25. PuckMunchkin

    PuckMunchkin Registered User

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    Yeah.. Boqvists lack of production in the short stints in SHL and Allsvenskan probably drop his stock when doing pure stat analysis:
    upload_2018-5-29_12-57-53.png
     

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