The Data-Based Drafting Thread (what players would a Potato pick?)

Discussion in 'Vancouver Canucks' started by But Gillis, May 27, 2018.

  1. Doyle Hargraves

    Doyle Hargraves Registered User

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    I’m going cross eyed. I woulda sworn he said Gillis drafted 3 times and Elmer drafted five times. Can’t even blame it on booze. Either way though the drafting under Eye Bags was horrendous and I’m a fan of the guy.
     
  2. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    It wouldn't surprise me if Hughes is a great pick, but this model is based kn the big picture. In the long run, if you take the forward with the numbers over the shrimpy defender from college you will come out ahead more often than not.

    Your scouts need to be able to tell you where the exceptions lie if you are really going to master this thing.
     
  3. I in the Eye

    I in the Eye Drop a ball it falls

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    That Hughes isn't on the list is exactly why there is a need for a benchmark in the drafting process.

    It's about making more informed decisions. If a team decides to draft Hughes early, despite what the benchmark says, they will be inclined to look at variables at a deeper level than they otherwise would. At the top of the draft, it's all about finding the likely bpa. Later in the first round and later in the draft is all about finding the gems despite the question marks.

    Regardless of who is decided to be ranked where, the goal should be 0 ignorance involved in the decision.
     
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  4. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Big thank you to @vancityluongo who helped me with some data entry as I now have data going back to the 2006 draft.

    Things are getting a bit sketchy now due to the reliability of 10+ year old data and the changes in league structures over this time.

    Just for fun, Canuck picks from 2006-2008:

    2006: Claude Giroux, Bobby Hughes, Jonas Enlund, Chris Auger, Benjamin Breault
    2007: Brett MacLean, Patrik Zackrisson, Dustin Jeffrey, Zack Torquato, Nick Larson, Bryan Rufenach
    2008: Cody Hodgson, Nathan Moon, Chris Doyle, Matias Sointu, Samuel Morneau

    Woof. Overall, these were not good drafts for the model. But still, Claude Giroux makes up for a lot of errors. And that is kind of the point of this project, to show that even when picking players in stupid fashion and making a lot of mistakes, you are going to find these random hits that overall make you look decent. These drafts are pretty garbage, but even if these picks had been our picks we would be in decent shape. It just doesn't really matter.

    By the way, I am posting pretty much exclusively in this thread until a certain troll is gone from the boards. If he happens to post in here, please do me a favour and ignore him. Thanks.
     
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2018 at 6:32 PM
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  5. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Here is the final top 20 for 2018.

    On Friday/Saturday I will make picks using the best player still available at the Canucks pick according to the system. Probably 2-3 of these players will be selected, maybe more.

    1. Rasmus Dahlin
    2. Evan Bouchard
    3. Andrei Svechnikov
    4. Jesperi Kotkaniemi
    5. Isac Lundeström
    6. Filip Zadina
    7. Filip Hållander
    8. Noah Dobson
    9. Jacob Olofsson
    10. Oliver Wahlstrom
    11. Sean Durzi
    12. Martin Kaut
    13. Ryan Merkley
    14. Akil Thomas
    15. Joe Veleno
    16. Nicolas Beaudin
    17. Jonatan Berggren
    18. David Gustafsson
    19. Rasmus Kupari
    20. Rasmus Sandin

    Will be interesting to see what players we end up with and be able to compare the prospects over time to see how much better the Canucks do.
     
  6. RobertKron

    RobertKron Registered User

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    The Hodgson pick isn’t really very ugly for the model, as you can’t expect it to be able to flag a guy to fail for the reasons Hodgson did.

    Also, I find it funny that I genuinely can’t narrow down who you might be talking about beyond a short list of maybe five posters.
     
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  7. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Yeah.

    That also was supposed to be Brett MacLean in 2007 , not Bellmore. MacLean was a pretty good prospect who had to retire due to a heart condition. The model also had Alexei Cherepanov rated very highly that year, who died suddenly during a game in Russia. That was really not a good year for anyone.
     
  8. cookiefest

    cookiefest nothing matters anyway.

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    Thanks for doing this mate.
     
  9. RobertKron

    RobertKron Registered User

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    Yeah, Maclean was often undersold because he played with Tavares, but he was still a capable player in his own right. Bad skater, though, right?
     
  10. Verviticus

    Verviticus Registered User

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    are you sick of hearing praise yet? if not, awesome work dude
     
  11. Verviticus

    Verviticus Registered User

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    yeah i had to think about it for a sec
     
  12. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    With all this time you’ve spent on this, do you play with your own poo for fun? Like make airplane models out of your own poo and what not?

    Hahaha, just kidding bro. In all seriousness, that’s some great research that you did. Very interesting to me that Tkachuk, Boqvist, and Hughes completely fall of the map with your analysis.

    I like Bouchard but am not as insanely high on him as some others. I’m more of a Dobson guy. Will be very interesting to see how all of this place out. I’ll also pay attention to your dark horses.

    Great job!
     
  13. Ronning On Empty

    Ronning On Empty Formerly BleachClean

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    @Melvin: What does the Potato say about the equivalencies between the OHL and the SuperElit? Is Boqvist's production horrid? I'm having the toughest time choosing between Bouchard and Boqvist. The former has the production, but the latter has the talent.
     
  14. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    I have it around 75% of the OHL. Based only on production and league (not accounting for other things like height,) he is similar to someone like Jared McIsaac, Joey Keane, or, from older drafts ..... Olli Juolevi. :)
     
  15. Ronning On Empty

    Ronning On Empty Formerly BleachClean

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    What about Makar? I heard JD Burke describe the equivalency of the SuperElit to be more like the BCHL. This is why I ask.

    I was hoping that it was similar to the USHL. I can’t bring myself to justify taking Boqvist over Bouchard given this information. I want to, but it’s just too much of an unnecessary risk to justify.
     
  16. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Very similar to Makar, yes. That was another name I almost used. It's also only 25 games.

    Edit: I have the SuperElit and the USHL as higher than the BCHL. Makar was AJHL.

    His production is definitely not horrid. It is comparable to Erik Karlsson and Robert Hagg in that league. But also Dennis Persson and Jesper Lindgren.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2018 at 3:13 AM
  17. Hindustan Smyl

    Hindustan Smyl 2020/2021 = Canucks being a contender

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    No offense, but couldn't the same be said about a monkey throwing darts at a dart board? Even by complete chance, you'll hit the Bulls eye every once in awhile.
     
  18. Ronning On Empty

    Ronning On Empty Formerly BleachClean

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    You think that maybe it’s too short of a sample to accurately judge him? I’m looking for anything at this point.
     
  19. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Well yes, that is exactly what I am demonstrating. The list of players available for the draft is pretty much public information, and no matter what method you use to pick from this list, you are probably going to do about the same. The idea that it takes a drafting wizard to get any decent prospects from the draft is exactly the fallacy I am fighting with this project. I am objectively taking players in a stupid and rudimentary fashion and still doing as well as most if not all NHL teams. This is why I believe very strongly that drafting is not, as many claim, the "most important thing" for an NHL front office.

    Of course, the Canucks in particular have been so, so much worse than the potato/monkey for so long that even just run-0f-the-mill performance seems impressive.
     
  20. Zombotron

    Zombotron Certainly Does Suck Sponsor

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    We have prospects! Kole Lind, Jonah Gadjovich!!!! They didn't evaporate into dust in their D+1 seasons!!!!! Benning is a draft GENIUS!!!
     
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  21. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    He's right on that line. My system discounts stats that are put up in fewer than 25 games in a league, so he is literally on the line. It would be easier to get a read on him if he had played the whole season there. The fact that he played 15 SHL games is generally a huge positive, but only one point combined with 2 points in 7 Allsvenskan games makes him probably the most difficult player to evaluate in the first round.

    For me? Bouchard's performance is almost unprecedented. The last guy to put up those kind of numbers was Ryan Ellis in 2009, and he was 5'10" and playing with Taylor Hall.

    As far as 6'2" defenders who have put up 80+ points and absolutely dwarfed everyone else on his team, there just aren't any comparables in the last decade of drafting. Boqvist is maybe more intriguing for other reasons but in terms of his production it is a big mystery box.
     
  22. Melvin

    Melvin is on a pasta-free diet. Sponsor

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    Right, exactly. My system didn't get Kole Lind, but it got me Jason Robertson, who is basically the same thing. I can get middling prospects too, and I don't have to pay millions of dollars to fly scouts around the world or make smug videos of how smart I am or put on pants.
     
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  23. Megaterio Llamas

    Megaterio Llamas woo eggenberger

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    This is fascinating.

    You're a wizard @Melvin. A true star.
     
  24. mossey3535

    mossey3535 Registered User

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  25. Andy Dufresne

    Andy Dufresne Registered User

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    It might be worth noting that Boqvist production is very unequal (for a d-man) in terms of goals vs assists.

    Someone pointed out on another board that Boqvist had the highest goals/gm ever, for a U18 d-man in the Super Elite J20 league. On the other hand his assist numbers were extremely pedestrian.

    14 goals and 10 assists (25 games) is an extremely odd stat line for a d-man in any league. People can infer whatever they wish out of that, but I see his assist totals as something of an anomaly. Usually any type of high impact offensive defenceman is going to have as many assists as goals no matter how in love with their own shot they are. Given his shot, and the obvious lack of team-mates who were on his level- i'm also guessing his coach told him to shoot at every opportunity. All in all, lack of production only really applies to Boqvist's pro numbers imo.
     

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